— Court cuts Scope 3 from California climate disclosure rules at 11th hour

— Tesla-SpaceX deal on the clock after Democratic election win

— Time is running out for the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation

— ECB’s Lagarde calls for financial prep in face of extreme weather threats

— China burns more coal than the rest of the world combined

An appeals court this week blocked ambitious climate disclosure plans from California’s Gov. Gavin Newsom, one day before part of them was scheduled to take effect — adding a new wrinkle to the debate over whether companies must report carbon emissions from their vendors and supply chains.

The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals blocked a controversial section of the climate rule called Scope 3, which impacts supply chain emissions, though it allowed rules to require public companies to report direct and indirect emissions (Scope 1 and 2), which take effect today.

The Scope 3 plans, which were not slated to start phasing in until next year, were halted as the court determined companies were “insufficiently tethered” to their vendors to make the rule constitutional. It also said the wording of the requirement included “subjective ideological assessments,” adding a political strain to the ruling.

The legal action kicks one of the most controversial aspects of climate disclosure back to a district court and again sets back efforts to require companies, such as Apple to report things like the pollution caused by shipping iPhones from their manufacturers in China.

The Scope 3 requirement has been at the center of a debate in Washington for national climate disclosure laws and resulted in the Securities and Exchange Commission withdrawing proposed rules after the Trump administration came to power two years ago. California rules would have been the strictest in the country because they included Scope 3.

The ruling is the first sign that even with a Democratic win in the midterm elections last week, the ideological battle over climate change and particularly climate disclosure reporting is still raging.

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Tesla-SpaceX deal on the clock after Democratic election win

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The United Nations’ annual climate summit kicks off in Turkey this week for its 31st year, enthused by the Democratic wave that swept over U.S. midterm elections last week but mostly hamstrung by the energy crisis spawned by the Iran war.

More than 20 Democratic representatives are scheduled to visit the COP31 event in Antalya this week, though nobody will be there from the Trump administration behind the war that has caused the energy crisis. Likewise, no leaders from other major polluters, though China is sending a special representative.

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. . . . Welcome back to Green Lights. Here’s our roundup of the best of Callaway Climate Insights. David Callaway says this week’s midterm election was all about which party controls Congress, but the big subplot was energy. Bill Sternberg says the outcome was the result of high prices and broken promises. See what’s ahead for investors. Have a great week and please subscribe to support our climate finance reporting.

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. . . . It was high prices and broken promises that propelled the Democrats’ big midterm wins, writes Bill Sternberg. His column this week features four key takeaways from the election results, with an eye toward what they mean for renewable energy and climate-focused investors.

It’s the energy prices, stupid

. . . . One of the more remarkable Wall Street records tied to Election Day is that the S&P 500 has climbed in the year after every U.S. midterm election for 76 years, dating back to 1950, David Callaway writes. Climate investors should be on the lookout for a favorable interest-rate environment, gridlock in Congress and, hopefully, a continued rally for the S&P 500.

Read more here

. . . . First-day market reactions after elections don’t really mean much, except as an indicator of voter relief after the uncertainty of campaign season is removed. But it’s instructive to see investors begin to lay their chips where they think political focus will be in coming months. Despite a massive repudiation of the AI data center buildout in red states, AI stocks rose along with the market as oil prices fell on hopes for a quicker end to the Iran War.

Data center distress swamps red states

. . . . It’s been a weak results season for EV makers, but Rivian shares briefly bucked the trend this week after UBS came in with a “buy” rating and set a price target of $17 a share. Rivian, along with Lucid, remains one of the few EV pure plays in the market. See what’s keeping these companies in the game.

Read more here

. . . . Voters in Colorado were voting on the right to buy fossil fuels. In California, they were voting to tax AI billionaires. In Oklahoma, voters ousted a small-town mayor in a battle over a $1 billion data center along Route 66. The midterm voting was all about which party controls Congress, but the subplot of this election is energy. Specifically, high gas prices, high electricity prices and the threat of new AI data centers to electric grids and the environment.

Read more here

More greenery . . . .

• COP31: What’s at stake in this year’s climate summit (UN News)

• Warmer at the top: Surprising results from long-term analysis of Kilimanjaro (Phys.org)

• The risk of leaks: Managing risk in carbon portfolios (Nature)

• Far from home: Nearly 90 million displaced people face growing climate risks (Reuters)

• Environmental law violations: Court rules against California’s first carbon capture project (CalMatters)

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(Bill Sternberg is a veteran Washington journalist and former editorial page editor of USA Today.)

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. (Callaway Climate Insights) — Biblical rainfall fueled by a changing climate made Election Day an ordeal here on Florida’s east coast. People who hadn’t voted early had to navigate flooded roads to get to polling places that were changed at the last minute after a poorly forecast storm system inundated the region with more than a foot of rain.

But voters here, and elsewhere, were far less focused on global warming than they were about the prices at the gas stations they passed while attempting to drive to the polls. Those prices, combined with other economic concerns and disgust with government corruption, underlie the “blue tsunami” in Tuesday’s midterm elections that swept Democrats into control of both chambers of Congress.

Here are some key takeaways from the election results, with an eye toward what they mean for renewable energy and climate-focused investors:

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President Donald Trump’s favorite success indicator says it all today. The stock market leaped on the blue wave that swept over the U.S. on expectations a new and revitalized Democratic Congress will rein in the worst of the Trump administration excesses, particularly on debt, unauthorized military acts and energy policies.

Despite a massive repudiation of the AI data center buildout in red states such as Texas, South Carolina, and Georgia — but also swing states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania — threatening to pause up to half of the 1,500 proposed data centers in the country, AI stocks such as Meta , Google and Amazon rose along with the market as oil prices fell on hopes for a quicker end to the Iran War.

First-day market reactions after elections don’t really mean much, except as an indicator of voter relief after the uncertainty of campaign season is removed. But it’s instructive to see investors begin to lay their chips where they think political focus will be in coming months.

Chief among those in the past few days have been the solar stocks, such as Enphase , First Solar and the Invesco Solar ETF . Other renewable energy stocks also rose on expectations the Democrats will at least pull back on the administration’s reckless authority over the Environmental Protection Agency. Senseless attacks on wind turbine projects will also likely be looked at, helping wind energy shares.

In coming days, investors will get a clearer preview of how this remaining half of Trump’s term will go. Specifically, whether Democrats will follow through on their mandate to work to lower energy prices or whether they just plan on a series of revenge acts such as impeachment hearings and special investigations.

Early indications aren’t promising. Sen. Edward Markey (D-Mass.) said this morning that new forests will have to be planted to handle all the papers the Dems will need to issue subpoenas to the administration. Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.), who has been elected to lead the House Oversight Committee next term, put it even more succinctly to Republican leaders: “Lawyer up.”

David Callaway explains why this column is called Zeus in The coming battle with the climate gods: How mortal innovators and investors will save the planet.

The first test of whether the Democrats can overcome their internal divides and focus on energy will be the permitting bill currently in Congress. While flawed, and favorable to fossil fuel companies, it represents the best chance yet for Congress to speed up the permitting process that acts as a bottleneck to all energy projects getting electricity to the nation’s grids.

If the existing Democrats on Capitol Hill can join the Republicans in a bipartisan effort to pass the permitting bill before the end of the year, it would be a strong indication that they do indeed tend to work across party lines to help reduce energy prices and broader inflation.

If they instead try to dramatically change the bill or delay until the New Year when the new Congress takes over — likely killing the bill — that will send a message that the next two years are going to be more about political infighting than anything else.

Data centers are the other story, particularly in Texas, where incoming Gov. Gina Hinojosa has promised a moratorium on new data center construction. Texas, which current Gov. Greg Abbott had once hoped to turn into an epicenter of data center construction, is home to about 25% of all proposed U.S. data centers right now.

Halting or slowing down the growth of the AI data centers resulted largely from a grassroots public response to concerns about environmental damage and surging electricity prices. Politicians such as Hinojosa now become major players at the table with AI leaders from the big tech companies, who have largely enjoyed unprecedented freedom to build what they want under Trump.

Whether this impacts the growth of AI share prices remains to be seen. But it’s a clear sign that the ability of billionaires such as Elon Musk to wreak havoc on government policy is over. Indeed, Musk and others who participated in Trump’s activities in the past two years are now front and center for Democratic Congressional investigations into corruption on a grand scale.

What this all means for the market and climate investors is that there will indeed be a more contentious political atmosphere in Washington in the next two years, which historically favors the bulls. That is good news for renewable energy stocks as well.

And President Trump may now finally learn that the market really doesn’t care about one person’s success, especially his. It just goes where the money is.

Read more Zeus columns from David Callaway:

• Zeus: UK abandons tough climate reporting rules

• Zeus: Octopus Energy’s Greg Jackson and the ‘primordial soup’ of free electricity for all

• Zeus: How Tim Cook’s early climate lesson saved Apple investors

— Stocks rallied after every U.S. midterm election for 76 years; What will it take this time?

— Rivian shares pop as earnings lead to new rating on Wall Street

— Pacific Islanders call for urgent action at COP31 to avoid climate catastrophe

— UN’s Green Climate Fund approves a record $2 billion in funding

— Has global warming already stopped the next ice age?

One of the more remarkable Wall Street records tied to Election Day is that the S&P 500 has climbed in the year after every U.S. midterm election for 76 years, dating back to 1950.

Historians typically cite the removal of uncertainty among investors following an election for the rallies, and the frequent occurrence of gridlock in Congress, which prevents any radical legislation for two years and removes potential surprises.

Perhaps, but if that is the case this time, what can climate investors expect in the next 12 months?

The first thing would be a favorable interest rate environment. Rates directly impact most renewable energy and climate companies because they tend to borrow heavily in the early years to reach critical mass. Despite voter anger over prices, the U.S. economy has performed well recently, leading many to expect a series of higher interest rate moves in the New Year. That would have to change to create conditions for stocks to move materially higher.

Also, gridlock in Congress if the Democrats win big as expected would have specific implications for the bipartisan permitting bill being discussed. A big Democratic victory might lead the party to hold off on approving the bill until they take their seats in January. Such a move would likely kill the bill, which is flawed as it stands now but represents a great chance to get the energy transition moving again.

Finally, a continued rally in the S&P will require a settling down of AI concerns in coming months. The tech bros behind the AI frenzy have sided with President Donald Trump and that could lead to Congressional investigations that could put pressure on their stocks. A rotation among sectors toward Democratic favorites such as healthcare and even renewable energy would be welcome, but tech stocks still have to stay strong for the overall index to move higher.

In stocks as well as other forms of speculation, betting the trend is a popular bit of advice. The S&P 500’s record is indeed formidable. But when deconstructed for current times, it will require a near-term future a bit different than what the talking heads on Wall Street currently expect. Enjoy Election Night!

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Tuesday’s subscriber insights

Rivian shares pop on UBS call as investors wake up to earnings

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In Colorado they’re voting on the right to buy fossil fuels. In California they’re voting to tax AI billionaires. In Oklahoma they’re voting to throw out a small-town mayor who supports a $1 billion data center along Route 66.

Tomorrow’s U.S. midterm elections are all about which party controls Congress, but the subplot of this election is all about energy. Specifically, high gas prices, high electricity prices, and the threat of new AI data centers to electric grids and the environment.

Climate is on the ballot across the country as gasoline prices remain at record levels and El Nino begins to rear its ugly head in the form of intense rainstorms, high tides and flooding. Different states and counties are responding in different ways, but all are concerned about data centers and about the rising profile of the energy industry in their business.

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. . . . Welcome back to Green Lights. Here’s our roundup of the best of Callaway Climate Insights. David Callaway looks at how the spin on energy prices adds to the noise of this week’s midterm elections. He also reviews Anthropic’s massive filing ahead of its IPO: It’s not just about runaway AI. Mark Hulbert explores how much data center growth has actually benefited renewable energy. Have a great week and please subscribe to support our climate finance reporting.

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. . . . The battle in Congress over data centers, largely around the so-called permitting bill, is just beginning. Depending on the outcome of the elections, that will be the next big front in the U.S. renewable energy wars as the current Congress tries to pass it before a new, more Democratic Congress takes over in January. Tune out the noise and spin over energy prices and crises over the next couple of days.

Read more here

. . . . Anthropic, in a federal filing ahead of its IPO, warned about runaway AI technology, but almost as important is what it said about climate change. David Callaway writes that while investors will rush to get shares when the company goes public in a few weeks, how those shares perform over time will depend directly on how Anthropic navigates the dual risks of AI and climate and energy impacts.

A dark cloud over AI stocks?

. . . . A lot of the backlash against data centers is tied into the fact that many of them intend to use natural gas to power their AI development, but a new study details just how much data center growth has benefited renewable energy as well, writes Mark Hulbert. Because projects using renewables such as solar and battery storage can be built quicker and operated with less expense, a lot of the data centers planned and launched in 2022 and 2023 — just after ChatGPT made data centers sexy — were done so with renewable energy at their cores. The study raises the question of what a collapse in the AI bubble might mean to renewable energy growth should it happen.

Read more here

. . . . New UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham didn’t win any creativity awards for his cabinet’s first budget plan this week, but he did manage to temporarily cast off some of the pain to consumers from rising energy costs by passing it off in the form of a new tax on banks. What makes the budget plan risky is that it treats the Iran war as a temporary anomaly that will revert to more normal prices once U.S. President Donald Trump ends the hostilities. Perhaps, but it’s a lot to bet your budget on.

Read more here

. . . . Depending on who you listen to, this year’s El Nino could be the worst in decades. Shipping routes could be impacted. Commodities prices hit by floods or drought. Infrastructure threatened by winds and torrential rains. Estimates of economic damage running into the tens of billions of dollars. It’s a headline writer’s dream. But investors know better than to trade on shock headlines. When it is over, economists will look back and count the costs. They will be high. But for most of us, it will have little impact on our daily lives, and so should not impact our long-term investing strategies.

Don't panic

. . . . The 2026 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change warns that climate change is a “global health emergency” and the harms are accelerating. The new report also finds that extreme heat is taking a toll on the global economy. Despite some progress since the Paris Agreement, greenhouse gas emissions continue to reach record highs, the report says, and “climate change is increasingly affecting health and threatening people’s survival worldwide, and the window of opportunity to avoid a potentially catastrophic future is rapidly closing.”

Read more here

More greenery . . . .

Secret vote: A U.N. climate report legitimized carbon capture and storage, despite scant evidence (Pro Publica)

Heating up: Global warming is accelerating at a record pace (Science Daily)

Family tree: The historic Bavarian forest that inspired modern sustainability is fighting for its life (Forbes)

Expecting a big bill: The finance sector should capture the full range of climate change risks (Nature.com)

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Any sensible voter who watches television knows that in the final days before an election the best thing to do is turn the sound down. In this election, largely about energy prices, that’s true more than ever.

A barrage of reports spinning the energy prices crisis every which way is hitting our airwaves and digital news feeds this week, each designed to raise or ease concerns ahead of voting day. Forget that more than 30 million Americans have already voted.

Is anyone still trying to make up their minds about the risks vs. benefits of more AI data centers? Will the permitting bill really boost renewable energy? More than fossil fuels? Why are wind turbines suddenly the key to unlocking comprehensive grid reform?

What’s clearer than ever is that the data center controversy is not going away. Wood Mackenzie estimates that some 18% of planned new computing capacity is currently blocked by some form of state or local moratorium on data centers.

The battle in Congress for data centers, largely around the so-called permitting bill, is just beginning. Depending on the outcome of the elections, that will be the next big front in the U.S. renewable energy wars as the current Congress tries to pass it before a new, more Democratic Congress takes over in January.

The rest is just noise for the next few days. Then all hell breaks loose next week.

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How renewable energy benefits from data centers

. . . . A lot of the backlash against data centers is tied into the fact that many of them intend to use natural gas to power their AI development, but a new study details just how much data center growth has benefited renewable energy as well, writes Mark Hulbert. Because projects using renewables such as solar and battery storage can be built quicker and operated with less expense, a lot of the data centers planned and launched in 2022 and 2023 — just after ChatGPT made data centers sexy — were done so with renewable energy at their cores. The study raises the question of what a collapse in the AI bubble might mean to renewable energy growth should it happen, Hulbert says.

Read the full column

Thursday’s subscriber insights

British budget’s risky plan to cut energy prices (hint: it depends on Trump)

. . . . New UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham didn’t win any creativity awards for his cabinet’s first budget plan this week, but he did manage to temporarily cast off some of the pain to consumers from rising energy costs by passing it off in the form of a new tax on banks.

Burnham and Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey maintained a moratorium on government taxes (VAT) on energy bills and even offered millions of consumers a 100 pound ($134), one-time payment to help with their heating bills this winter. It financed this largesse by tacking 3% more on bank profits, which caused bankers to howl but their share prices to rise as most agreed it could have been worse.

The moves were part of a hodgepodge of small tweaks the new Labour Party government leader and his team tried to masquerade as an effort to create “breathing room” for ordinary Britons until the energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the U.S./Israel war on Iran were over.

Energy prices, spurred by soaring oil and gas costs, are at the heart of public discontent around the world, especially since Iran this past summer, and are roiling electorates. A massive swing in sentiment toward Democrats for the U.S. midterms next week can be tied to higher energy costs as well.

The British plan was not deemed by financial markets to be large enough or inventive enough to address the government’s wrenching financial problems or the Bank of England’s need to raise interest rates to battle inflation. But what makes it all the riskier is that it treats the Iran war as a temporary anomaly that will revert to more normal prices once U.S. President Donald Trump ends the hostilities.

Perhaps, but it’s a lot to bet your budget on. “We did not want this war,” Healey told Parliament in his budget speech. Indeed.

Editor’s picks: What happens when the water runs out? Plus, ocean’s ability to absorb carbon weakens

Watch this video: Water shortages are expected to get worse in many parts of the world. So what can we do to cope? In this edition of The Climate Question from the BBC World Service, host Graihagh Jackson explores solutions from water usage apps in South Africa to solar irrigation systems in Egypt. She also looks at the challenges of adapting our energy infrastructure for a warming planet.

Ocean’s ability to absorb carbon is weakening

The ocean absorbs around 30% of human-caused CO₂ emissions and 90% of excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases. But climate change has already reduced its capacity to absorb carbon by approximately 6%, a new UN report warns ahead of the COP31 climate conference in November. “For a long time the ocean has been doing us an enormous climate service, but that service is under increasing pressure,” Sara Traerup, lead author of the report, told UN News. Rising temperatures and changes in ocean chemistry, circulation and ecosystems are weakening its ability to absorb and store carbon, leaving more CO₂ in the atmosphere. And this process “can definitely accelerate” in the foreseeable future, Traerup said.

Latest findings: New research, studies and projects

Lancet: Climate change is a ‘global health emergency’

The 2026 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change warns that climate change is a “global health emergency” and the harms are accelerating. The new report, released Tuesday, also finds that extreme heat is taking a toll on the global economy. Despite some progress since the Paris Agreement, greenhouse gas emissions continue to reach record highs, the report says, and “climate change is increasingly affecting health and threatening people’s survival worldwide, and the window of opportunity to avoid a potentially catastrophic future is rapidly closing.” The 54 indicators in this report document the growing health impacts of climate change and reveal opportunities for a health-protective response. Although captured in the report separately, many of the health and socioeconomic impacts of climate change are co-occurring, compounding, and leading to system-wide risks that could vastly exceed those quantified through individual indicators, according to the report’s executive summary. The authors added, “Now, a severe El Niño threatens to compound the impacts of climate change and trigger unprecedented climate-related humanitarian crises globally. Because of the rapidly growing threats over the past decade, climate change has become a global health emergency.”

Words to live by . . . .

“A decade after the Paris Agreement, our findings are unambiguous: The health harms of climate change are growing faster than the world’s response to them, and in many cases even accelerating.” — Marina Romanello, a professor at University College London and executive director of the Lancet Countdown.

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(Mark Hulbert, an author and longtime investment columnist, is the founder of the Hulbert Financial Digest; his Hulbert Ratings audits investment newsletter returns.)

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (Callaway Climate Insights) — Everyone “knows” that the mad rush to build data centers will require huge amounts of fossil-fuel generated electricity.

But as Humphrey Neill, father of contrarian analysis, put it in his book The Art of Contrary Thinking, “When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong.” And a new academic study finds that Neill’s skepticism is at least partially borne out. The authors have found that data centers have mainly spurred investments in renewable energy sources and battery storage.

Read more

— El Nino is coming. Take a deep breath.

— Anthropic risk factors more than just runaway AI

— Move over, beavers. There’s a new climate hero in town.

— Staggering death toll from Europe’s summer heat waves

— Under the surface: Glaciers that end in lakes are melting faster around the world

High tides are nothing new to the San Francisco Bay Area, yet this week they are leading the local news as communities up and down the California coastline prepare for severe flooding. Having witnessed floodwaters that shut roads and even a main highway last winter, people are nervous this time.

The era of the higher waters is indeed here to stay, and it doesn’t take more than one local disaster for people to take notice. But panic is not the answer. Especially for investors. As November begins next week, all weather forecasts are calling for a “Super El Nino” this year. That’s the occasional weather pattern that heats up the oceans and causes more storms.

Depending on who you listen to, this year’s El Nino could be the worst in decades. Shipping routes could be impacted. Commodities prices hit by floods or drought. Infrastructure threatened by winds and torrential rains. Estimates of economic damage running into the tens of billions of dollars. It’s a headline writer’s dream.

But investors know better than to trade on shock headlines. When all is said and done, this year’s El Nino could indeed cause untold damage worldwide. But like climate change itself, actual local emergencies will be spread widely and intermittent. More snow in Colorado; maybe none in Canada. Typhoons in India, drought in Africa.

Smart investors will trade it as it comes, not as an approaching category 5 hurricane but as a global weather pattern with lots of threats and opportunities over several months. Higher commodities prices? Slowing supply lines for your new Apple Duo? Impact on the insurance industry? Catastrophe bonds? All potential trading windows but decisions to be made on trading preferences, not under threat.

When it is over, economists will look back and count the costs. They will be high. But for most of us, it will have little impact on our daily lives, and so should not impact our long-term investing strategies.

There are plenty of scarier things out there.

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Tuesday’s subscriber insights

Anthropic cites climate change in massive risk factor filing

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The comeback victory of Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is more than just the story of a popular political leader overcoming the odds to win a fourth term as president. It’s a regional lifeline for efforts to fight global warming, particularly in the vital Amazon rainforest.

Under Lula’s leadership in the past few years, deforestation activities in the Amazon basin fell to their lowest levels in four decades, and global investment in regional efforts to conserve forests surged.

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. . . . Welcome back to Green Lights. Here’s our roundup of the best of Callaway Climate Insights. This week, David Callaway looks at how the midterm elections are starting to show up in stock sector performances, and what Tesla’s earnings reveal about a future merger with SpaceX. Ahead of Sunday’s runoff election in Brazil, Michael Molinski weighs the risk to $100 billion in climate finance flows to Latin America. Go buy yourself some Halloween candy this weekend and please subscribe to support our climate finance reporting.

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. . . . Less than two weeks out from the U.S. midterm elections, the potential for Democrats to flip Congress has started to show up in stock sector performances, with energy among the biggest players, writes David Callaway. While nobody expects a reversal in anti-climate legislation and regulation in the second half of Trump’s term, a gridlocked Congress will at least be able to stall further attacks. Much will depend, however, on how high interest rates rise.

Read more here

. . . . Only a day after Elon Musk finally confirmed that his SpaceX and Tesla companies were formally exploring a merger, Tesla’s third-quarter earnings reflected a company that is sorely in need of some new direction. The whole hodgepodge paints a picture of a company in transition from electric vehicle maker to new age AI creator — but one that needs some guidance, or at least a clear mission.

Earnings make case for SpaceX deal

. . . . Climate finance flows to Latin America that have doubled in the past four years to more than $100 billion are at risk from the critical election this weekend in Brazil, where the politics over destruction of the Amazon are seen as a major battlefield for the world’s war against global warming, writes Michael Molinski. Progress in Brazil under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva could be derailed if right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro, son of the former president, wins in a runoff on Sunday. While just one of the countries seeing flows of international investment into climate projects and deforestation efforts, Brazil is an important bellwether for Latin America.

Read the full column here

Faced with higher energy prices going into the winter and a political decision with no real positive side, UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham blinked this week, approving the restarting of drilling in the smaller of two North Sea gas fields off of Aberdeen on Scotland’s East Coast. A political decision to be sure, David Callaway writes. But one that will hurt Britain’s carefully crafted standing among nations dedicated to reducing fossil fuel emissions and fighting climate change as global warming hits Europe hard.

Read more here

. . . . Since the beginning of the 21st century, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have followed an increasing trend, mainly due to the increase in emissions from China and the other emerging economies, according to the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research from the European Commission. China, the U.S., India, the EU27, Russia and Indonesia were the world’s largest GHG emitters in 2025.

The biggest GHG emitters

. . . . Extensive heat waves used to be rare. But a data-driven examination of global temperatures by Reuters shows the emergence of a weather phenomenon it calls “heat storms.” “They now swarm the planet, upending life around the world from Texas to Ivory Coast to Poland,” the report says. Over the past 65 years, Reuters says, heat waves have evolved from isolated episodes to extensive, cascading weather events that can blanket large parts of the planet for months or even years at a time.

More greenery . . . .

Fighting fire with firepower: UK to use military helicopters to battle wildfires (Reuters)

A river runs through it: Brazil’s Supreme Court suspends permit for major Amazon gold mine (AP)

If they know about it: Washington state’s new cooling law protects farm workers (Yale Climate Connections)

On the map: U.S. Drinking Water Contaminated With ‘Forever Chemicals’ (Newsweek)

Venezuela: The secret terms of Trump’s oil deal (ProPublica)

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Only a day after Elon Musk finally confirmed that his SpaceX and Tesla companies were formally exploring a merger, Tesla’s third-quarter earnings reflected a company that is sorely in need of some new direction.

Tesla’s headline numbers were lower than last year but generally beat analysts’ estimates, though nothing in the core auto or energy business units showed much promise of surging anytime soon.

The action was in the company’s next generation products, such as its humanoid robots and its robotaxis, both of which came with the traditional Musk promises of being just around the corner, but so far are sucking up far more research spending than any reasonable public company can afford.

Tesla shares fell initially but then rallied back as investors reminded themselves that the company is now in play. They are down about 14% year-to-date but up more than 20% in the past three months on both takeover speculation and hopes — dashed by these earnings — that auto deliveries might improve.

The whole hodgepodge paints a picture of a company in transition from electric vehicle maker to new age, AI creator — but one that needs some guidance, or at least a clear mission. Combining with SpaceX will be that mission, though when Musk will pull the trigger is anybody’s guess.

Given that Tesla investors will expect some sort of premium in any mega-deal, another quarter or so of heavy R&D spending might still be in the offing, at least until SpaceX rival Anthropic goes public in the next few months. Because without the prospects of a merger hanging over the stock, shareholders would not be as forgiving of Musk as they appear to be.

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Latam climate progress at risk as Brazil goes to the polls

. . . . Climate finance flows to Latin America that have doubled in the past four years to more than $100 billion are at risk from the critical election this weekend in Brazil, where the politics over destruction of the Amazon are seen as a major battlefield for the world’s war against global warming, writes Michael Molinski. Progress in Brazil under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva could be derailed if right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro, son of the former president, wins in a runoff on Sunday. While just one of the countries seeing flows of international investment into climate projects and deforestation efforts, Brazil is an important bellwether for Latin America. The United Nations climate summit last year in Belem, Brazil, led to a surge in climate financing for the region that, while not nearly enough, is seen as a welcome signal of global commitment to fighting climate change there.

Read the full column

Thursday’s subscriber insights

Britain’s Burnham blinks on North Sea drilling, hurting UK’s climate rep

. . . . Faced with higher energy prices going into the winter and a political decision with no real positive side, Britain’s Andy Burnham blinked this week, approving the restarting of drilling in the smaller of two North Sea gas fields off of Aberdeen on Scotland’s East Coast.

No doubt the Labour Party leader’s advisors told him the approval of the Jackdaw field was already cooked into his political ratings and that if his party accepted it without too much fuss then he could proceed with the approval of the more contentious Rosebank field early next year.

A political decision to be sure. But one that will hurt Britain’s carefully crafted standing among nations dedicated to reducing fossil fuel emissions and fighting climate change as global warming hits Europe hard.

The Jackdaw field, which will be developed by a venture of Royal Dutch Shell and Norway’s Equinor, won’t yield any significant results for years, and then will only deliver enough gas to heat about 6% of UK households. But it will impact Britain’s climate reputation now, just weeks ahead of the United Nations’ COP31 climate summit in Turkey.

As a consolation to environmentalists and to the climate advocates in his party and the UK’s Green party, Burnham included the establishment of a £2 billion ($2.6 billion) investment fund for renewable energy projects.

The announcement was widely accepted and was indeed applauded by President Donald Trump in the U.S. but will land with an ugly thud elsewhere. Only weeks into his term, the new PM has shown his stripes on climate, giving in to the temptation to allay job growth fears in Scotland and Northern England. Burnham’s advisors certainly expect the local political fallout from the decision to pass.

His counterparts on the global climate stage may have longer memories.

Editor’s picks: California’s new climate assessment

Watch the video: California is already experiencing the impacts of climate change. In the past decade, Californians have endured severe droughts, floods, historic wildfires, rising seas, and record temperatures all driven by climate change. Building resilience to these impacts requires sustained investment in climate change research and science. Read more about the risks and plans for resiliency in California’s fifth climate change assessment.

Latest findings: New research, studies and projects

Expansive ‘heat storms’ are a cascading climate disaster

Extensive heat waves used to be rare. But a data-driven examination of global temperatures by Reuters shows the emergence of a weather phenomenon it calls “heat storms.” “They now swarm the planet, upending life around the world from Texas to Ivory Coast to Poland,” the report says. Over the past 65 years, Reuters says, heat waves have evolved from isolated episodes to extensive, cascading weather events that can blanket large parts of the planet for months or even years at a time. “The largest heat wave of the 1960s reached about 6% of the planet as it drifted for 46 days over the Atlantic Ocean, parts of Latin America and West Africa. The largest one this decade swept across almost 85% of the globe during its 367-day lifetime, stretching into the polar latitudes and touching virtually every human being on Earth.” James Renwick, professor of physical geography at New Zealand’s Victoria University of Wellington, is quoted as saying heat storms inflict “a major disruption to global civilization. Heat is the biggest killer from climate change,” he said, noting that it can lead to “famine, hunger, death, conflict over resources.” As part of this series examining heat storms and their effects, Reuters has integrated an online Heat Storm Tracker into its regular weather coverage. With this tool, people can see what had previously gone unnoticed and, using that knowledge, tally the impact of heat storms as they rage across regions, Reuters says.

Words to live by . . . .

“All countries, especially the big emitters, must do more. Every fraction of a degree matters.” — U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, from the UN’s latest emissions gap report.

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(Michael Molinski is a senior economist at Trendline Economics. He’s worked for Fidelity, Charles Schwab and Wells Fargo, and previously as a foreign correspondent and editor for Bloomberg News and MarketWatch.)

SAO PAULO, Brazil (Callaway Climate Insights) — Climate finance flows in Latin America doubled in the past four years as innovative capital instruments sought to close the climate change funding gap, despite challenging political hurdles like the hotly contested Brazilian presidential election this coming Sunday.

From green bonds and carbon credits to the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) to concessions of public lands for forest restoration, there has been no shortage of innovative financial mechanisms channeling funds toward climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean.

“Latin America is among the regions most exposed to climate, economic, and biodiversity crises, yet it is also central to solving them,” said a report last month in The Nature Conservancy.

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— Two weeks before the U.S. midterms, investors are placing their sector chips

— Tesla’s flying car reveal highlights SpaceX potential

— COP31’s turtle mascot faces a weather threat: not enough boys

— Climate change heats up France’s student protests

— China, the U.S., India top the list of the world’s biggest GHG emitters

Two weeks out from the U.S. midterm elections, the potential for Democrats to flip Congress has started to show up in stock sector performances, with energy among the biggest players.

Big energy companies, led by oil and gas, enjoyed a strong third quarter as prices spiked by the Iran war only increased. Clean energy companies fared less well, hampered by President Donald Trump and rising borrowing rates, though demand for more energy from data centers is booming.

While nobody expects a reversal in anti-climate legislation and regulation in the second half of Trump’s term, a gridlocked Congress will at least be able to stall further attacks. Much will depend, however, on how high interest rates rise.

Other sectors suggest it might not be so bad. Rates and higher prices have already affected stocks in the utilities, industrials, real estate and consumer discretionary areas, meaning a slower economy is being priced in. Elsewhere, defense stocks were down 16% in the third quarter, on expectations for changes on Capitol Hill, while healthcare stocks were up 9%.

One wildcard will be whether a new Congress can pass the bipartisan permitting bill currently being discussed, which would benefit all energy companies, as well as AI companies, which have been lower lately but occupy a large segment of the positive side of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

History suggests that the market will rise after the midterms as the political pendulum swings back into a more neutral mode. A strong third-quarter earnings season in the next few weeks, combined with the removal of uncertainty in D.C. for the time being could favor that scenario and lead a strong run into the end of the year.

All of which means that the next few weeks are likely to dictate sentiment as we head into the holidays, and some investors are already laying their bets.

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If you have ideas or suggestions for us, contact me directly at dcallaway@callawayclimateinsights.com.

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Tuesday’s subscriber insights

Tesla’s flying car reveal highlights potential of SpaceX deal

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. . . . Welcome back to Green Lights. Here’s our roundup of the best of Callaway Climate Insights. This week, David Callaway looks at how the surge in diesel prices this summer will hit data center development, while Mark Hulbert explains why the scariest thing about Halloween isn’t the cost of chocolate. Have a safe weekend and please subscribe to support our climate finance reporting.

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. . . . Amid all the furor over the environmental threats of AI data center growth, and particularly the fuel they use for power, few investors realize that the vast majority of data centers use diesel generators as backup for any power emergencies. The surge in diesel prices to unprecedented levels this summer will hit data center development hard as big tech companies seek to access enough fuel for their backup generators, writes David Callaway.

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. . . . David Callaway writes that as global financial markets shake with debt concerns ahead of next week’s 39th anniversary of Black Monday, two potential crisis flashpoints look set to collide. The AI debt binge and the growing pullback of insurers from climate bets are suddenly both occupying the risk desks of the largest investors. It’s common on Wall Street for analysts to look for comparisons to past financial crises such as those in 1987 and 2007-2008, but as we’ve written before, both were started in the debt markets. It would be foolhardy not to at least be aware.

AI debt and insurance risk

. . . . It’s not the tiny spook-filled evening of Halloween that is the scariest part of the holiday, it’s the day after, writes Mark Hulbert. That’s the day when some 35 million costumes will be tossed in the dump, most of them synthetic fibers made from fossil fuels and worn only once or twice. While the kids wear their costumes for only a few hours, the environmental breakdown time of the material could take decades, if not centuries. Halloween is the pinnacle of the year for the fast-fashion industry. Hulbert said aside from withholding candy on Halloween, the problem of fast-fashion needs to be dealt with on the regulatory level.

Tricks, not treats

. . . . The Securities and Exchange Commission moved last week from a policy of abandonment of climate regulatory duty to one of aggressive pest of fund managers who push climate proposals for the companies they own. It’s one thing to drop all federal requirements for public companies to detail climate risk to an investor base with growing demand for climate information. It’s quite another to actively go after large investors for seeking to require the companies whose shares they own from providing more insight.

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. . . . After a long, hot, deadly summer, geo-engineering is back on the table around the world. Each year as it gets hotter, and more people die and countries lose economic productivity because of excessive heat, the debate rises again. Several small, unauthorized experiments have been attempted in Europe and the U.S., each time shut down by authorities. Like AI, David Callaway writes, geo-engineering is going to advance whether governments like it or not. The issue is how to design guardrails around it and fund legitimate experiments that bring the international community closer to a collective answer before a rogue attempt triggers something catastrophic.

Read more here

More greenery . . . .

• Gentrification of seafood?: Climate change has caused prices of everyday seafood to soar (The New York Times)

• Serious condition: 7 of 16 planetary vital signs are in their most extreme state ever recorded (Wired)

• Brazil is burning: Fires surge in the Amazon as El Nino, climate change take a toll (Reuters)

• World Food Day: UNICEF warns of climate threat to child nutrition (Vatican News)

• ‘Touch grass’: No, seriously. Climate therapists say it’s good to reconnect with nature (Grist)

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As global financial markets shake with debt concerns ahead of next week’s 39th anniversary of Black Monday, two potential crisis flashpoints look set to collide. The AI debt binge and the growing pullback of insurers from climate bets are suddenly both occupying the risk desks of the largest investors.

Concerns that AI companies are borrowing more money to fund AI data centers and research than they will be able to pay back with proceeds from AI have climbed steadily this summer. But this week, Coreweave, a troubled AI cloud provider backed by Nvidia , told the Financial Times it will look to insurers to secure more funds as the yields on its debt soar to ominous levels.

The Coreweave story shocked the market and has sent Nvidia shares down about 10% in the past 10 days, as well as the rest of the tech-backed chips and AI stock group. Trouble is that insurers might not represent the vast pools of money the AI market thinks they do. A horrible summer of claims from global warming has them increasingly retreating from backing properties in climate-threatened areas of the U.S. and Europe and cutting risk investment in general.

It’s common on Wall Street for analysts to look for comparisons to past financial crises such as Black Monday in 1987 or the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, but as we’ve written before, both were started in the debt markets. It would be foolhardy not to at least be aware.

The AI frenzy is intrinsically tied to the power generation and renewable energy markets where many climate investors reside. Just as many of those companies enjoyed the boom of the past few years, fueled by borrowing for data center construction and low interest rates, the same ripple effect now threatens in reverse.

With earnings season set to go into full swing next week, and the U.S. midterm elections less than three weeks away, the price of everything is on the table. As with all potential money crises, investors are advised to watch the banks. As they go, so go the rest of the markets.

If you have ideas or suggestions for us, contact me directly at dcallaway@callawayclimateinsights.com.

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The scariest part of Halloween for climate advocates

. . . . It’s not the tiny spook-filled evening of Halloween that is the scariest part of the holiday for climate advocates, it’s the day after, writes Mark Hulbert. That’s the day when some 35 million costumes will be tossed in the dump, most of them synthetic fibers made from fossil fuels and worn only once or twice. While the kids wear their costumes for only a few hours, the environmental breakdown time of the material could take decades, if not centuries. Halloween is the pinnacle of the year for the fast-fashion industry, which has boomed under millennials and Gen Z’ers, who rapidly buy and sell clothes on their phones. One company, China’s Shein, reportedly sells up to 10,000 new products a day. Hulbert said aside from withholding candy on Halloween, the problem of fast-fashion needs to be dealt with on the regulatory level.

Read the full column

Thursday’s subscriber insights

After a long, hot, deadly summer, geo-engineering back in the limelight

. . . . In Indonesia, authorities are considering deploying dry ice pellets into the clouds above airports to help clear the wildfire smoke that has blanketed the country, according to Bloomberg. In Europe, however, the EU is working to fund a campaign to detect and prevent unauthorized use of geo-engineering techniques to block or curtail the sun by private companies or even state governments.

After a long, hot, deadly summer, geo-engineering is back on the table around the world. Each year as it gets hotter, and more people die and countries lose economic productivity because of excessive heat, the debate rises again. Several small, unauthorized experiments have been attempted in Europe and the U.S., each time shut down by authorities.

But China, and now Indonesia, routinely seed clouds and deploy efforts to change their climate, usually to remove smog caused by wildfires or excessive coal usage. Indeed, if any party makes a serious run at geo-engineering, it will likely be in Asia, where global warming is even more of a problem than in Europe and the U.S.

The problem with attempts like this to stop it is that there is no international agreement, and unlikely to be one. In a world where many states are suffering much worse than others, agreements on holding back important research are a long shot. And even if agreed, pretty much unenforceable.

There is significant research on geo-engineering, and several different types of it; crop dusting, for example. Like AI, it is going to advance whether governments like it or not. The issue is how to design guardrails around it and fund legitimate experiments that bring the international community closer to a collective answer, before a rogue attempt triggers something catastrophic.

Editor’s picks: ‘Nordic newcomers to the world of wine’

Watch the video: Record high temperatures this year forced European wine producers to harvest grapes much earlier than usual. French wineries fear it will lead to the worst season in 30 years. But Nordic newcomers to the world of wine are toasting what they believe will be a vintage harvest, thanks, in no small part, to climate change. Special correspondent Malcolm Brabant reports from Sweden for PBS News Hour.

Latest findings: New research, studies and projects

Most and least energy efficient states

The average U.S. family spends at least $2,000 per year on utilities, according to the U.S. Department of Energy, with heating and cooling alone accounting for more than half the bill. In addition, the average consumer spent another $2,411 on gasoline in 2024. To gauge the impact of doing more with less energy, WalletHub measured the efficiency of auto- and home-energy consumption in 48 U.S. states. California is the most energy-efficient state, boasting the lowest residential energy consumption per capita and the third-highest home energy efficiency. Vermont is the second-most energy-efficient state, in large part because it’s the second-most vehicle-fuel efficient in the country. Vermont residents drive an average of around 21 miles per gallon of gasoline. New York is the third-most energy-efficient state overall, ranking highly for both home and automobile efficiency.

Words to live by . . . .

“October is the month for painted leaves. Their rich glow now flashes round the world.” — Henry David Thoreau, Autumnal Tints.

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(Mark Hulbert, an author and longtime investment columnist, is the founder of the Hulbert Financial Digest; his Hulbert Ratings audits investment newsletter returns.)

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (Callaway Climate Insights) — Keep the climate in mind as you decide what your Halloween costume will be this year.

That’s because the scariest part of Halloween may be what happens on the day after: That’s when an estimated 35 million costumes will be thrown in the dump, most having been worn only once. The vast majority of these costumes are woven from synthetic fibers derived from fossil fuels.

Though these Halloween costumes will see the light of day for just a few hours, their environmental impact will be felt for decades — if not centuries.

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— Diesel crunch threatens data center power security plans

— Trump’s SEC threatens large fund managers for climate proposals

— How New York City rebuilds to become greener, more resilient

— UNICEF: 347 million children at risk from El Niño threats now

— Water bills surged more than other costs in U.S. homes over past 10 years

Two days into the so-called “energy ceasefire” in Ukraine, Russia is still attacking and diesel prices are as high as ever, battering industries from trucking and transportation to construction, mining and yes, even data centers.

Amid all the furor over the environmental threats of data center growth, and particularly the fuel they use to power the AI development at them, few investors realize that the vast majority of data centers use diesel generators as backup for any power emergencies. Diesel generators are the easiest and quickest to start when the power goes down, but also the dirtiest.

The surge in diesel prices to unprecedented levels this summer will hit data center development hard as big tech companies seek to access enough fuel for their backup generators. The backup strategies are important as the amount of energy the data centers intend to use, and in many cases how that energy is taken from community electric grids, is still very much in question.

The tech companies behind the data centers are also contributing to the massive demand for diesel that results in the prices soaring when there is not enough supply. Part of this is obviously driving President Donald Trump’s desire to lower prices before the midterms, which led to his foolhardy effort to lift export restrictions on Russia over the weekend.

There are still plenty of other environmental obstacles for the data center hyperscalers. Finnish regulators this week halted a massive data center project by Google in the country after it cleared more than 700 acres of forest around the project without proper assessment procedures.

But the threat of a prolonged shortage of diesel fuel, in addition to its impact on so many other industrial companies, hangs heavy over the data center story as the midterms approach, and by extension the AI investment thesis overall.

If you have ideas or suggestions for us, contact me directly at dcallaway@callawayclimateinsights.com.

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Tuesday’s subscriber insights

Trump’s SEC threatens large fund managers on climate proposals

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