It was a typical New York City Climate Week. Traffic gridlocked as police shut streets for global leaders; a bomb threat evacuated a midtown building; protests flared and flailed. Even a few subway lines shut down on the East Side one morning as President Donald Trump’s motorcade made its way to the United Nations from Trump Tower, wary of bombs below.

As chaos reigned, more than 100,000 people shuffled their way around Manhattan as best they could, attending climate events and announcing energy deals in a continuous coffee-and-cocktail circuit.

But amid the dire warnings about AI, energy security and new extreme weather threats, few things changed from last year. Little action got done; pretty much none at the UN level where it mattered. If anything, the pro-data center forces began to erect a coherent rebuttal to the environmental backlash that has seized the American people this election season. The battle is joined.

These types of meetings do serve a purpose. People coming together over a specific challenge or two tend to leave with renewed vigor and enthusiasm for their cause. The logistical obstacles just make it more exciting. Shared purpose is revitalizing.

The problem is that now the climate calendar ticks toward COP 31 in Turkey, a full two months away. “My fear about these meetings is that we delay action until the meetings,” David Miliband, a former British politician and head of the International Rescue Committee said at a climate event organized by The Independent, with Callaway Climate Insights. “We need action today.”

At least this week, that didn’t happen.

If you have ideas or suggestions for us, contact me directly at dcallaway@callawayclimateinsights.com.

Subscribe now

Zeus: Octopus Energy’s Greg Jackson and the “primordial soup” of free energy for all

. . . . Octopus Energy CEO Greg Jackson likens the emergence of cheaper renewable energy to the days just before the iPhone changed wireless Internet technology 20 years ago, writes David Callaway in his weekly Zeus column. Comparing the Apple invention to “primordial soup and then the spark hit and life began,” he argued that green energy innovation will lead to an era of free electricity that will ultimately transition the world from the industrial age of oil and gas to a new paradigm. The only problem: entrenched fossil fuel interests, utility monopolies and governments that support them.

Read the full Zeus column

Thursday’s subscriber insights

Despite Trump and AI focus, renewables are soaring outside of China

. . . . The AI frenzy and President Trump may have sucked up most of the oxygen here in New York City this week but the thousands of climate participants still have good reason to feel hopeful as the climate calendar turns toward COP31 in Turkey later this year.

Renewable energy investment outside of China was up more than 15% at $247 billion in the first half of this year, approaching last year’s record, according to BloombergNEF.

More than 70% of that growth came from investment in new solar capacity and in battery storage.

But don’t write off wind energy. The Revolution Wind project off the coast of Rhode Island, which the White House has twice tried to stop, just completed installation of its 65th and last offshore turbine, meaning it will be generating at full capacity later this year sometime.

The gains come as the, forgive the pun, rising tide of data center demand and excessive heat this year boost the need for more power, wherever it can come from. They also mean that in the investment world the game is shifting to companies working to solve distribution bottlenecks with utilities and other generators.

Something to keep in mind as the market works through concerns about inflation and higher interest rates.

Editor’s picks: California state of emergency; plus, record prices for diesel

Watch this video: California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced this week that he is declaring a state of emergency ahead of what could be the strongest El Niño weather phenomenon on record. KTLA’s Hailey Winslow reports.

Record prices for diesel fuel

U.S. retail diesel prices have topped $6 a gallon for the first time on record this month. Reuters reports. Diesel futures in Europe also closed at an all-time high last week, more than double their level at the beginning of the year, after supply disruptions spread to the Red Sea, where Saudi Arabia loads most of its diesel. War ​in the Middle East and Ukraine have damaged oil refineries in the region, the report notes, and refineries elsewhere are working hard to make fuels. The International Energy Agency reported this week that in the U.S. refineries operated at the highest level in eight years as of late last month. “A key issue is that many refineries around the world are already stretched to capacity,” the IEA said in a newsletter on ​Monday. “This leaves few available options to prevent a further tightening of supplies and higher prices in the coming months.”

Latest findings: New research, studies and projects

Longer allergy season

A warmer autumn and a later freeze means a longer allergy season. And that’s bad news for the 50 million people in the U.S. with allergies to ragweed pollen in the late summer and early fall, reports Climate Central. “Our warming climate results in more freeze-free days each year — giving plants more time to grow and release allergy-inducing pollen earlier in spring and later into fall,” the report says. Climate Central’s analysis found that fall warming since 1970 has extended ragweed’s freeze-free growing season in 88% of 202 U.S. cities analyzed — by 11 days on average. Cities in all U.S. climate regions have seen their freeze-free fall seasons lengthen — led by the Northwest, with an average of 14 more days compared to the early 1970s.

Words to live by . . . .

“Silence isn’t neutral, it’s dangerous. Silence enables inaction, and inaction leads to more climate change. More flooding, more fires, more empty supermarket shelves, more pollution, more uninsurable homes.” — Helen Clarkson, CEO of the Climate Group, speaking at New York Climate Week.

Subscribe now

NEW YORK (Callaway Climate Insights) — Greg Jackson is never short of a good one-liner and the CEO of Britain’s Octopus Energy didn’t disappoint this week as he discussed the outlook for renewable energy at New York City Climate Week here.

Speaking at The Independent’s third annual Climate 100 event, in partnership with Callaway Climate Insights, Jackson likened the evolution of cheaper, green energy to the arrival of the iPhone back in 2007.

While there was wireless Internet long before Apple’s iPhone, its introduction was “the primordial soup that was hit by the spark and life began,” he said. It kicked off a technology revolution that directly led to the AI boom dominating the global agenda this week as global leaders meet here at the United Nations.

Jackson argued that energy costs are falling so rapidly that they are now even routinely negative in parts of Asia each day. Once providers and governments can get past the restraints of their industrial legacies, it is more than likely a new era of virtually free energy will arrive, dominated by innovative new energy companies like, well, Jackson’s Octopus.

Read more

(Michael Molinski is a senior economist at Trendline Economics. He’s worked for Fidelity, Charles Schwab and Wells Fargo, and previously as a foreign correspondent and editor for Bloomberg News and MarketWatch.)

PARIS (Callaway Climate Insights) — The trade balance between Europe and Latin America has sharply increased over the past year at the expense of falling trade between the U.S. and Latin America. That could have a net effect on climate change as Europe’s push for clean energy, deforestation and critical minerals take hold.

In 2025, the balance of trade between Europe and Latin America hit a record $325 billion. Based on early data, this year the balance of trade is expected to easily surpass last year. Minerals and metals from Latin America are chiefly responsible for that growth as gold, silver, copper and lithium lead the way.

As global leaders descend on New York this week to discuss climate change, trade and tariffs are expected to be high on the agenda. Yes, they will discuss the Iran war, the Russia-Ukraine war, AI, rising energy costs and rising interest rates, but trade will be amid all of that.

Read more

A new specter will hang over NYC Climate Week and the United Nations next week as global leaders meet to discuss the latest on Iran, Ukraine, drone warfare, AI and soaring energy costs: rising interest rates.

The Federal Reserve Board’s decision this week to raise interest rates, joining Europe and the UK, which have been raising rates all year, puts three of the most powerful central banks back together on the same cycle, which is bad for borrowers.

The fortunes of renewable energy companies and other climate startups are particularly tied to interest rates as many need to borrow heavily both from private and public sources to achieve scale in building out wind, solar and other energy infrastructure. Climate investors acutely remember the last time rates rose after Covid and how green stocks tanked in reaction.

Green energy companies are already starting to falter in places such as Germany and Europe is currently running at less than half the investment it needs annually in renewables to achieve its 2030 climate targets. All of this comes on the heels of soaring fossil fuel prices as well because of the two wars.

So as executives and climate advocates gather in security-clogged Manhattan, they’ll have more than rising energy costs to worry about. The engine of finance behind the transition has suddenly stalled.

NOTE: David Callaway will be joining The Independent in New York on Tuesday, Sept. 22 for its annual Climate 100 Event at NYC Climate Week. This year’s event features David Miliband, President of the International Rescue Committee and a former British politician. Details on how to watch to be announced on Monday.

If you have ideas or suggestions for us, contact me directly at dcallaway@callawayclimateinsights.com.

Subscribe now

California takes lead in tracking of 95% of large company pollutions

. . . . There hasn’t been a lot of good news on the climate disclosure front coming out of the Trump administration this year, but the states are making up for it, writes Mark Hulbert. While the federal government has abandoned a plan by the Biden Administration to require large public companies disclose harmful greenhouse gas emissions, several states, including California, are implementing similar rules. California’s rule, set to begin on Nov. 10, would require all companies with revenue above $1 billion to disclosure their emissions from direct and indirect electricity usage, and importantly, emissions from their vendors or so-called Scope 3 emissions. Those last emissions, which need to be reported starting next year, are responsible for more than 95% of all dangerous greenhouse gas emissions, Hulbert writes and shows with accompanying data charts.

Read the full column

Thursday’s subscriber insights

EU’s Von Der Leyen gets out ahead of UN leaders meeting with new heat strategy

. . . . Getting ahead of the United Nations Global Leaders Meeting next week in New York City on climate initiatives, EU President Ursula von der Leyen laid out a strategy this week to help European members insure themselves against economic damage caused by extreme heat.

After the hottest summer on record across the continent, analysts estimate more than $180 billion in economic damage from lost work, ill health and natural disasters such as wildfires. That’s equal to about 1% of EU economic growth a year, or enough to effectively wipe out most growth in 2026.

Von der Leyen said that to date there has been little private insurance for most of this damage and that it typically just gets absorbed into state budgets. Saying the EU cannot allow this to happen again, she’s seeking to create an “insurance alliance” from companies across the region to help prop up economies when disaster strikes.

The alliance would differ from ones popping up in states such as California and Florida, which are managed by the state and seen as insurers of last resort for homeowners, in that the European plan would draw on insurers across borders to help create the alliance buffer fund.

Acknowledgment of a need for more insurance is a next step in the cascading effects of global warming as the impacts spread to the financial industry from state and local budgets. Participation of insurers will no doubt come with higher premiums elsewhere, meaning that almost all businesses and homeowners will be affected.

Editor’s picks: It’s time for Fat Bear Week. Vote early, vote often

. . . . Even if you are just an occasional reader of Callaway Climate Insights, you know we care about fat bears! And so should you. Almost every day of the week, we are warning about the consequences of a warming planet — on our health, our environment, our finances. But there’s one season, one week, when we can turn our eyes to a beautiful environmental success: the fattest bears on the planet. Fat Bear Week, hosted by Katmai National Park and Preserve in Alaska, is an annual celebration of success. For bears, fat equals survival, and fat bears are a sign of Katmai’s important and healthy ecosystem.

The NPS notes that at Katmai, bears are drawn to the large number of salmon readily available from roughly late June through September. Salmon have long since been the lifeblood of the area, supporting Katmai’s people, bears and other animals. Fat bears exemplify the richness of this area, a wild region that is home to more brown bears than people, and the largest, healthiest runs of sockeye salmon left on the planet. How the competition works: Held over the course of seven days and ending on Fat Bear Tuesday, people chose which bear to crown in this March-Madness style bracket where bears are pitted against each other for your vote.

This year, Fat Bear Week starts Tuesday Sept. 22 and ends on Fat Bear Tuesday, Sept. 29. Matchups are open for voting Sept. 22 to 29 between noon and 9 p.m. Eastern / 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. Pacific / 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Alaska. This is a single elimination tournament. For each match-up, vote for the bear you believe best exemplifies fatness and success in brown bears. The bear with the most votes advances to the next round. Only one will be crowned Fat Bear Week champion. Read more and get ready to vote here.

Global warming set to cross threshold sooner than expected

Watch the video: In a new report, officials with the United Nations say the world is close to crossing the global warming temperature threshold sooner than expected. Kristie Ebi, one of the lead authors, joins CBS News to discuss the findings.

Words to live by . . . .

“Autumn is a second spring when every leaf is a flower.” – Albert Camus

Subscribe now

(Mark Hulbert, an author and longtime investment columnist, is the founder of the Hulbert Financial Digest; his Hulbert Ratings audits investment newsletter returns.)

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (Callaway Climate Insights) — The news isn’t all bad on the climate data disclosure front, though you have to look hard to see the good news.

The bad news on this front was the Trump Administration’s decision last year to roll back the climate disclosure rules the Biden Administration had adopted in 2024. The good news is that individual states — most prominently California — have passed laws that in many ways resurrect the rules that the Trump Administration eliminated.

Read more

— Cutting federal climate laws will result in trillions in climate harm, hurt stocks

— Fusion fund-raising leader Helion quietly pushes back its timeline

— Oceans have reached their hottest temperature on record

— August breaks records for heat on land and at sea

— Leaf-peeping season has begun. Here’s how to find the brightest fall foliage

At first glance one might think the Trump Administration’s move this week to slash federal climate protection laws would be a good thing for energy stocks. Abolishing regulations that restrict fossil-fuel plants from polluting the atmosphere would cut costs and boost profits, after all.

But the move by the EPA to tear up the Biden-era pollution standards for plants, coming after it canceled a ruling earlier this year that said scientific evidence showed carbon emissions hurt humans, will instead result in trillions of dollars in healthcare costs and lost lives, an economic own-goal if there ever was one.

The Environmental Defense Fund calculated the move to repeal the Endangerment Finding that pollution is unhealthy will result in between $1.5 trillion and $4.2 trillion in climate harm. The latest move, which effectively frees up fossil fuel plants to operate without emissions restrictions, including on harmful methane releases, will come on top of that $4.2 trillion.

As we’ve seen countless times before with this administration, the promise of great profits and lower prices just doesn’t materialize. Yes, oil companies are making good money these days, but only because oil is over $109 a barrel because of the Iran war. Most energy company stocks are currently so tied to the ups and downs of AI these days that no amount of deregulation can move them, at least in the short term.

Like with its argument that AI should not be slowed down because there are no real problems or that Covid was just the flu, the idea that creating millions of tons more of harmful pollution will be good for the country just doesn’t fly. Even if it did boost our investment incomes, the payback is simply too great.

If you have ideas or suggestions for us, contact me directly at dcallaway@callawayclimateinsights.com.

Subscribe now

Tuesday’s subscriber insights

Amid calls for AI slowdown, fusion frenzy also hits snag

Read more

It may seem like President Donald Trump couldn’t think any less of voters by offering them $5.000 each to vote for Republicans, but that wasn’t even the most tone-deaf act his administration attempted this week.

Amid a massive public uprising against data centers across the country, Trump’s EPA sought to eliminate the need for public input on air pollution permits for manufacturing and industrial plants. The proposals would also allow large tech companies to begin construction on data centers without their local or state governments even publishing that the centers are being considered.

The move essentially throws a grenade into the growing rift between local communities and Big Tech over the data centers, with hapless community authorities in the middle. More than 500 moratoriums have been passed at the state and local levels (See Massachusetts item below) as authorities attempt to regain control of the process, but this new proposal would essentially bypass them all together.

The proposal is almost certain to drive the data center question even further into the mix of issues for voters in the midterms in November, along with immigration, Social Security, and of course, the energy security and prices challenges. Most Republican candidates have sought to distance themselves from the data center question, and many are even part of the locals who are concerned about the water and air quality in their communities brought on by these complexes.

The promise of AI is essentially a giant bet that the president and Big Tech are making that asks the public to trust them with its environments, climate change, privacy and digital lives. Now, as questions emerge, they’re simply trying to steamroll the issue. It’s going to take more than $5,000 to make this one go away.

If you have ideas or suggestions for us, contact me directly at dcallaway@callawayclimateinsights.com.

Subscribe now

Zeus: The campaign to solarize Catalina Island

. . . . Mark Tholke was just another vacationer on Southern California’s Catalina Island eight years ago when he asked someone how the pristine natural reserve received its electricity, writes David Callaway. He was shocked to find out the island 30 miles off the coast of Los Angeles was powered by a series of dirty diesel generators, some dating back to the 1960s. Now Tholke, a renewable energy executive, is leading a campaign to put solar energy on Catalina and convince the island’s power company, Southern California Edison to join him. A modest, 170-kilowatt solar project was launched last week next to the island’s airport, and Tholke hopes it will show that Catalina — and any island that imports fuel to survive — can indeed operate on solar power.

Read the full column

Thursday’s subscriber insights: Massachusetts adds new wrinkle to data center development debate

. . . . . Amid nationwide concern about the environmental impact of data center development for AI technology and rising moratoriums on construction at the local, and even state level, Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey introduced a new restriction this week.

The State House will allow data center projects to proceed, but only if the tech company behind the projects provides its own — renewable — energy. Companies that cannot manage their own renewable energy to support their projects would have to pay into a special state fund that would go toward providing relief for ratepayers.

The idea is effective because it attempts to revert the entire data center arms race among the tech giants back to the original premise when they started a new wave of construction four years ago to accommodate the massive amount of energy needed to power AI development. That they would use renewable energy.

Instead, the race to develop AI and build the data centers to support it has led many tech companies to go against earlier climate pledges and simply start buying gas for their power, arguing it is available now and more accessible. The ensuing building boom has enraged grassroots community advocates and suddenly become an issue in the upcoming midterm elections in the U.S.

The Massachusetts plan is elegant in its solution and should be readily acceptable by the tech companies. Those who argue they either can’t find renewable energy in time or that it is too expensive to work will simply be telling their communities that they need to pollute them to grow their profits. Let’s see who decides to bite.

Editor’s picks: Mont Blanc is blanc no more; plus, bison eviction stayed

Watch the video: For centuries, French and Italian mountain communities on the flanks of Western Europe's highest peak could gaze upon glaciers and ice and snow that seemed eternal and which gave the colossus its name: Mont Blanc, the white mountain. The Associated Press reports.

The buffalo may continue to roam — for now

A federal judge has temporarily blocked efforts by the Trump administration to evict hundreds of bison from public lands in Montana. Public Domain reports the preliminary injunction and temporary restraining order is a win for American Prairie, a Montana-based conservation organization that for more than two decades has worked to restore bison to public and private lands in the state. “Bison belong on this landscape, and today’s ruling gives them a chance to stay,” American Prairie CEO Alison Fox said in a statement. “For more than 20 years, our bison have grazed these lands under federal authorization and without grazing violations. The court recognized the concrete harm that removing them would cause, not just to our work, but to our Tribal partners and the broader effort to return bison to their native home.” According to the report, the Bureau of Land Management withdrew American Prairie’s permits to graze buffalo on federal public lands earlier this year, arguing that the animals amounted to wildlife rather than “production-oriented” livestock. American Prairie sued last month to challenge the BLM’s cancellation of its bison grazing authorizations. In his order, the judge said that the BLM’s decision to exclude American Prairie’s bison from federal grazing lands was likely “arbitrary, capricious, an abuse of discretion, and otherwise not in accordance with the law,” Public Domain reported.

Words to live by . . . .

“The history of the United States can be read in the history of the bison.” — Ken Burns, director of “The American Buffalo” documentary.

Subscribe now

Mark Tholke was just another vacationer on Southern California’s Catalina Island eight years ago when he asked someone how the popular holiday destination about 30 miles off the shore of Los Angeles got its electric power.

He was shocked to find out that the island, more than 88% of which is protected natural lands, is powered by dirty diesel generators with imported fuel. Some of the pollution from that fuel even drifts east, contributing to L.A.’s legendary smog.

“I’m an energy nerd so I asked how they got their energy,” said the renewable energy executive from Half Moon Bay near San Francisco. “I was shocked to learn it was diesel, and that some of the generators dated back to JFK.”

Tholke set about the long process of cold calling the Catalina Island Conservancy, which is California’s oldest private land trust, and pushing for a solution. Eight years and many permit applications later, Tholke is on Catalina this week to celebrate the Sept. 1 launch of a 170-kilowatt solar project just next to the island’s airport.

Three-hundred and fifty panels are being laid down on about three-quarters of an acre to start generating solar energy by the end of the year, and perhaps convince Southern California Edison, which powers the island with diesel, to take a harder look at a solar solution.

“It’s a modest project but it will help save some 25,000 gallons of diesel a year (from burning),” Tholke said in an interview. “The potential for solar on islands as the price of diesel skyrockets is the clear answer.”

David Callaway explains why this column is called Zeus in The coming battle with the climate gods: How mortal innovators and investors will save the planet.

Indeed, prices of diesel fuel, which burns much dirtier than regular gasoline, have soared even more than their counterparts this year in reaction to supply disruptions from the Middle East because of the war in Iran. Prices in California and Hawaii are up at $7 a gallon, almost $2 higher this year, while average prices nationally are about $5.50 a gallon.

Tholke said Southern California Edison, a private utility, burns about 2.2 million gallons of diesel a year to power Catalina, and uses an additional 325,000 to transport it to the island by tanker. He said Edison has looked at solar for a long time and but has so far done little to begin production.

Although the parent company of SCE, Edison International , whose shares are flat this year, provided a $300,000 grant to the Catalina Conservancy, which it used to contract with Tholke’s development company to build out the solar program.

Tholke has been in renewable energy for more than 30 years and has worked for companies such as Green Mountain Energy, GE Wind, EDF Renewables, and Advanced Microgrid Solutions before starting his own developer, Golden State Renewable Energy.

Tholke said he hopes Catalina can be an example for other islands around the world that use imported fuel to power their energy demands, in particular floating solar projects that don’t take up valuable, environmental land space.

Most of the past eight years were spent trying to acquire the permits to begin the solar project, Tholke said. The red tape and cost of finding the right space, then building, is what many companies use to just stick with what they have, he said. SCE, for example, has replaced some of its diesel generators with new ones.

“It was really just find a spot and build as big of a solar project as you can,” he said. “Any more solar than Edison has to be the partner.

Read more Zeus columns from David Callaway:

• Zeus: Green fund flows rise for first time in three years as heat emergencies bite

• Zeus: Global warming’s worst summer yet sends warning in market risk

• Zeus: How Tim Cook’s early climate lesson saved Apple investors

— United Nations makes case for economic growth from fossil fuel transition

— Far-right German party’s election victory shows energy prices still the No. 1 issue

— You think carbon is a problem? Wait til you hear about methane

— El Nino’s impact spreads from weather damage to humanitarian crises

— How Central Park helps NY keep its cool

As global leaders prepare to descend on New York City in two weeks for their annual summit at the United Nations amid war, soaring fuel costs and increased trade friction, the UN made its case for how dramatic action to fight global warming could lead to economic benefit rather than increased disaster costs.

The UN said in a widely circulated report that a series of initiatives around electric vehicles, limiting harmful methane releases at oil and gas plants, and the adaption of renewable energy would reduce pollution and provide up to 2.8% in economic growth to the world by 2035.

The growth would come largely from lower spending on healthcare and from increased labor production from a healthier workforce, the UN said. It added that implementation of the initiatives would cost about 0.7% of GDP. By contrast, every year of failure to implement would cost more than $1.5 trillion in pollution-related costs, as well as fossil fuel subsidies, or about 0.5% of GDP per year.

The UN is very much singing a solo tune here as the majority of governments have turned their backs on clean energy and zero emission strategies in the last few years as the wars in Ukraine and Iran have spiked fuel costs and caused a global energy crisis (see German vote below). But with New York Climate Week running concurrent with the global leaders meeting, it’s heartening to see the UN at least make its case.

We expect much of the global leaders meeting will focus on squabbling between President Donald Trump and other countries over issues such as Israel, global trade, and Ukraine. Reports like these tend to get noted and then pushed to the back of priority lists. But they serve as a reminder that the ability for governments to fight the onslaught of global warming exists. It’s just being ignored.

If you have ideas or suggestions for us, contact me directly at dcallaway@callawayclimateinsights.com.

Subscribe now

Tuesday’s subscriber insights

Far-right party’s win in Germany shows how prices still drive votes

Read more

I was new to my first reporting job at the Boston Herald in October 1987 when the stock market crashed more than 20% in one day in the worst week on Wall Street since 1929. A global market catastrophe was also my first front-page byline.

Only in retrospect did I, and many investors realize that the crash had been preceded two months earlier by significant declines in bond prices that were an ominous but overlooked signal to the end of a five-year bull market. Equities kept climbing for weeks after until that fateful day on Oct. 19.

I think about that one-two punch every time I see a plunging bond market in August, as we have seen in the past few weeks. Bond yields are soaring, likely in anticipation of higher interest rates to come. Also, in reaction to record borrowing by the U.S. government and corporate America.

The soaring stock market has given everybody new confidence in the economy and spawned even more borrowing. This is also true of green bonds, which had a record second quarter of issuance of $193 billion. And blue bonds, which fund maritime environmental projects, and are debuting at six times the pace of last year.

Renewable energy and climate startups are particularly impacted by rising interest rates, based on the amount of funds they’ve borrowed to scale their operations. The bull market in green companies that dominated from 2018 to 2022 ended not because of a shift in climate investing intentions but because of the last run higher of rates.

So while things look good in the stock market today, with Broadcom’s sparkling earnings and anticipation over the coming IPO of Anthropic, when I see bonds wobble combined with record new issuance in green bonds, it gets my attention.

Of course, there have been many years since 1987 when the bond market has dropped in late summer, and nothing happened. And maybe it was just that the full scare of that October day so long ago is particularly memorable to me. But still, just sayin’.

If you have ideas or suggestions for us, contact me directly at dcallaway@callawayclimateinsights.com.

Subscribe now

Hulbert: How ESG ratings are exacerbating climate change

. . . . Are ESG ratings actually making the world warmer? It appears so, according to a new study from the University of California at Berkeley and Hankuk University in South Korea, writes Mark Hulbert. The study finds that the vast majority of ESG ratings reward companies more for appearing sustainable, such as with their climate disclosure strategies, rather than actually cutting carbon intensity. Hulbert writes that the study could upend the entire ESG universe by declaring it too vague and blurred to actually show investors how to invest to fight global warming. Separating the “social” and “governance” themes from “environmental” in ESG parlance doesn’t help either. Only by reducing harmful carbon emissions can companies help the world mitigate the worst impacts of global warming. Remember that when you choose a stock because of its high ESG rating, Hulbert writes.

Read the full column

Thursday’s subscriber insights

Missing climate targets is not the end of the world — yet

. . . . The United Nations this week stated what everyone in the climate world has already known for years: humanity has failed to keep average global temperature levels from rising more than 1.5°F over pre-industrial levels in the [ast decade and it’s going to get a lot hotter very soon.

At some point in the next few years, the UN said, temperatures currently at 1.4°F above those levels will soar past 1.5°F and up to at least 1.8°F, or to a worst-case 2.6°F. The Paris Agreement of 2015, signed by most of the world’s countries, failed as the countries continued to burn fossil fuels even while building out renewable energy strategies.

For anyone who experienced the extreme heat, wildfires, crazy rain and windstorms, and deadly floods this summer, this is not welcome news. But meeting targets - even scientific ones — are not the primary goal here. While they present an understandable marker for people to strive for, they are just numbers after all.

The facts are that even as we have continued to bicker about the reality of climate change and fight over precious funds to help mitigate it, new technologies are making vast improvements in how we consume, store and distribute energy. Indeed, we may have blown through the 1.5 target years ago without some of the advancements we’ve seen in wind power, solar power, and electrification.

Pessimists will note that the extreme heat of this past summer doesn’t even reflect the fuel we are burning now, and that the worst is still yet to come. That may be true, but technology advancements often happen quicker and with dramatically more impact than academic timelines forecast. It took only a few years for almost everyone on the planet to have an iPhone or similar mobile product.

Records are indeed made to be broken. But that can work both ways.

Editor’s picks: Super El Nino is here

Watch the video: As super El Nino strengthens, study suggests climate change is intensifying El Ninos. The Associated Press reports.

Words to live by . . . .

“The challenge is no longer simply developing carbon dioxide removal technologies. It is building the financial, regulatory and market infrastructure needed to move CDR from early-stage projects to industrial-scale deployment.” — Nasim Pour. lead, Climate Finance, World Economic Forum.

Subscribe now

(Mark Hulbert, an author and longtime investment columnist, is the founder of the Hulbert Financial Digest; his Hulbert Ratings audits investment newsletter returns.)

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (Callaway Climate Insights) — ESG investing is making the climate warmer.

You read that right. Instead of incentivizing corporations to reduce their carbon footprints, investors who use ESG ratings to pick stocks are unwittingly making the problem worse.

That’s the unsettling conclusion of a study that last month began circulating in economic circles. The study is titled “ESG Ratings Undermine Portfolio Decarbonization,” and was conducted by Panos Patatoukas, a professor at the University of California at Berkely’s Haas School of Business, and Jinsung Hwang, a professor of business at South Korea’s Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.

The professors set out to discover if companies with high ESG ratings are more carbon efficient than lower-rated companies, as defined by having lower carbon intensity, or carbon emissions divided by revenue. They found just the opposite, however.

Read more

(Bill Sternberg is a veteran Washington journalist and former editorial page editor of USA Today.)

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. (Callaway Climate Insights) — What explains Congress’ fondness for fossil fuels and hostility toward green energy?

The most significant factor is political ideology. In today’s Trump-dominated Republican Party, the MAGA base regards human-caused climate change as a hoax. Oil, natural gas and coal are mighty. Wind and solar are for sissies. Last summer, when the GOP-controlled Congress passed the big bill that wiped out hundreds of billions of dollars in clean-energy incentives, all Democrats voted against it and all but five Republicans voted for it.

Another major influence is campaign contributions. It takes a lot of money to run for office, and fossil fuel donations dwarf those from environmental interests. In the 2023-24 election cycle, oil and gas interests contributed just shy of $250 million to federal candidates, about 12 times more than clean-energy interests, according to OpenSecrets.

But is there a third factor at work — lawmakers voting their personal portfolios?

Read more

The last thing we need after a summer of extreme heat and natural disaster directly tied to global warming is another 20% jump in pollution in the U.S.

But that’s just what a new report from BloombergNEF forecast this week — and possibly even worse — if the tech giants keep using gas-powered energy to drive their new AI data centers.

At a time when data centers are emerging as a major environmental issue across the nation ahead of midterm elections, the report lays out in stark detail how some 99 proposed data centers — many of them in Texas — will raise the total level of emissions from powering the country’s electricity usage by between 20% and a third.

The owners of the proposed plants, mainly the big tech and AI companies, have all reported soaring emissions in the last few years despite their pledges to try to reduce pollution to contain climate change. But in their arms race to build new capacity for their AI technology, available gas is often easier and quicker than renewable energy. Climate efforts are being sacrificed in the name of soaring stock prices.

Much has been written about the potential, existential threat to humanity from AI. The irony is that in our race to develop it, we are the ones expanding the threat — not the bots — from global warming. Destroying ourselves to save us.

If you have ideas or suggestions for us, contact me directly at dcallaway@callawayclimateinsights.com.

Subscribe now

Why you should care what the Trump Administration is doing to proxy advisers

. . . . The White House’s efforts to manipulate voting patterns has gone well beyond midterm elections and into the heart of American shareholder democracy system, writes Mark Hulbert. A series of proposals to weaken the influence of proxy advisors on how shareholders of companies vote on corporate management plans threatens to shift the odds massively in favor of CEOs and corporate boards, and in particular on climate votes and governance initiatives. Hulbert argues that if these proposals — actually executive orders — withstand testing in the courts then the ability of shareholders to influence how their companies act will be severely limited, as well as the impact of activist investors.

Read the full column

Thursday subscriber insights

The sun of God?

Pope Leo XIV and the Vatican, long supporters of fighting global warming, are expanding the use of solar energy to cover all of the Holy See’s energy usage within two years.

Pope Leo has approved expansion of a plan by his predecessor, Pope Francis, to build a massive solar farm on the outskirts of Rome to help develop agriculture for the Vatican and power its other electric needs, according to a report from Reuters this week.

The plan illustrates the new Pope’s determination to put the Vatican’s money where his mouth is on fighting climate change. The Vatican already uses solar panels but not to the extent proposed.

While the Vatican did not comment on the report, the new organization said the project could cost up to $100 million and take about 24 months to complete. At only about 100 acres, the Vatican is the world’s smallest country. But it would be the first to be entirely powered by renewable energy if the project succeeds.

Subscribe now

(Mark Hulbert, an author and longtime investment columnist, is the founder of the Hulbert Financial Digest; his Hulbert Ratings audits investment newsletter returns.)

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (Callaway Climate Insights) — It’s already difficult for investors to have any meaningful impact on the climate policies of the corporations whose shares they own, and it’s about to get even more so.

That’s because the Trump Administration is trying to emasculate a group of little-known companies called proxy advisers, which have played an outsized role in shareholder voting. Absent them, it will become even less likely than it already is that investors will be able to pass climate-friendly shareholder resolutions over corporate management’s objections.

The role played by proxy advisers

Read more

(Michael Molinski is a senior economist at Trendline Economics. He’s worked for Fidelity, Charles Schwab and Wells Fargo, and previously as a foreign correspondent and editor for Bloomberg News and MarketWatch.)

SAO PAULO, Brazil (Callaway Climate Insights) — Earthquakes in Colombia and Venezuela, and predictions that El Niño could make this hurricane season the worst yet have suddenly put climate change back on the agenda for the upcoming elections in Brazil.

After virtually disappearing from Brazil’s campaign election platforms, the environment is beginning to appear again thanks to the earthquakes in neighboring Colombia and Venezuela and due to predictions from meteorologists that the weather pattern El Niño could make 2026 the worst hurricane season on record.

President Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva, a former union leader and candidate for the Worker’s Party, is running to be president for an unprecedented fourth term against the conservative candidate, Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Jair Bolsonaro is widely known as being anti-climate change and for overseeing the deforestation of the Amazon during his reign, when deforestation increased 70% compared with historical lows. Under Lula, deforestation has dropped more than 30% and Lula has pledged that deforestation will drop to zero by 2030.

A resurgence of climate change?

Read more

The idea of the Trump administration buying back $4 billion in offshore wind leases at a time when the U.S. needs more energy than ever always appeared crazy. Until we found out what the White House planned to do instead. Now it’s confirmed crazy.

A new energy company called Greenland Energy was hastily cobbled together last year and taken public in a reverse SPAC merger this past spring, then sailed for Greenland and began unloading drilling equipment. Trouble is, nobody told Greenland, which promptly halted the project two weeks ago pending environmental review, according to Arctic Today.

Greenland hasn’t allowed new drilling licenses since 2021, but the Texas-based energy company managed to secure an existing lease on the Jameson Land peninsula on the country’s East coast and was telling investors it could have barrels on the market in 10 months. Now it might have to wait until next winter for approval to begin drilling.

The whole incident harks back to a more innocent time — last year — when the world thought President Donald Trump was going to invade Greenland. Not start a war with Iran that would block the world’s most important oil chokepoint. Now even Greenland isn’t nervous about what he will do.

Shares of Greenland Energy, which has said the project has nothing to do with Trump’s desire to take over the country, promptly lost half their value when the project was blocked last month.

Is it the midterms yet?

If you have ideas or suggestions for us, contact me directly at dcallaway@callawayclimateinsights.com.

Subscribe now

Zeus: Sustainable fund flows rise for first time in three years as heatwaves bite

. . . . Europe’s largest insurers are publishing warnings and the UK’s new prime minister called his first crisis cabinet meeting this week as a fifth heatwave hits the UK and the continent. Fund flows are also shifting as we move globally from a stance of prevention and mitigation to emergency reaction, writes David Callaway. Investor fund flows to sustainable funds rose for the first time in 14 quarters in Q2 as extreme heat and the demand for more power for data centers led to a shift in investor sentiment toward sustainable funds. This was especially true among passive funds, such as index funds where money is generally kept for longer periods. The question now is whether the summer of extreme heat will lead to actual changes in government attention to global warming, or whether it will simply fade as autumn arrives.

Read the full Zeus column

Thursday’s subscriber insights

Newsom’s utility bailout fund proposal catches fire

. . . . In Northern California, it is hard to think of a more villainous corporate entity than Pacific Gas & Electric, the monopoly power company. Dating back to Erin Brockovich’s historic fight against it in the early 1990s over contaminated groundwater, PG&E has maintained its status as ruthless power overlord for several decades.

These days, after recovering from bankruptcy eight years ago because of the impact of lawsuits after it sparked a series of tragic wildfires, if the weather grows dry and windy, PG&E simply turns off our lights rather than risk another downed wire. So it’s no surprise that Gov. Gavin Newsom’s latest proposal to limit claims against the utility as part of a restructuring of a “bailout” fund designed to prevent bankruptcies has, uh, ignited controversy.

No doubt Newsom wants to prevent his successor next year from inheriting a bankrupt utility, as he did eight years ago. Also, maybe he is looking ahead to an expected presidential run in 2028, with a goal of eliminating any risks of a power disaster in his state while he is campaigning.

But the idea of shielding PG&E from valid legal claims from insurance companies and indeed individuals for losses incurred from its own power structure was never going to fly with a populace on the front line of the country’s fire danger. It’s clear Newsom has chosen to take the pain of the unpopularity hit now rather than later, something every politician has to weigh on decisions such as this.

PG&E, whose shares are up almost 8% this year, is lobbying hard for the relief, of course. Almost as if it knows that something tragic will inevitably happen again, so it makes sense to shield its shareholders now. After all, politicians come and go but our local power companies are forever.

Editor’s picks: El Nino’s fickle track record

Watch the video: With different parts of the globe aflame in wildfires, deadly heat waves parking over cities, record hot oceans and a strengthening super El Niño, it seems like we’re baking through the hottest year on record. But we’re not quite there — yet. It’s only No. 3 in the record books. But we could be soon.

CalMatters: Fierce floods or wild waves from El Nino?

When the predicted super El Niño weather phenomenon arrives in coming months, San Diego and parts of Southern California could face raging floods. Or, CalMatters.org reports, the region could face less-than-normal rainfall and greater fire risk. “It could also see monster waves carve away beaches and pummel piers,” the publication says. While strong El Niños tend to increase the odds of wetter and stronger winter storms, the connection between ocean conditions and rainfall has weakened this century, according to the report. Scientists are having to adjust their forecasts to plan for more possible outcomes. “What actually will happen depends on specific storms called atmospheric rivers, which do not dance to the tune of El Niño,” said Alexander Gershunov, a research meteorologist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, told CalMatters. On the plus side, he said, “I think the surfers who love big waves should be satisfied this winter.”

Words to live by . . .

“‘Heat, ma’am!’ I said, ‘it was so dreadful here, that I found there was nothing left for it but to take off my flesh and sit in my bones.’” — Sydney Smith, author (1771–1845)

Subscribe now

New British Prime Minister Andy Burnham called the first emergency meeting of his cabinet earlier today as the fifth massive heatwave of the summer hits the UK and Europe with temperatures threatening to top 100°F in London this week.

The Cobra meeting is named for the specific room inside 10 Downing St. where emergency cabinet meetings are held, kind of like the Situation Room complex at the White House. It is designed for the highest order of threat against Britain, such as the fallout from a new war in the Middle East or a terrorist attack.

The fact that Burnham is using a global warming spike for his first Cobra meeting is significant. The Labour Prime Minister is widely expected to re-open two big new oil fields in the North Sea in coming weeks amid calls for energy price relief. But now the prospects of emergency wildfires and drought, easily illustrated in the parched, brown grass across London’s parks, might be causing him to rethink a plan that would only add more harmful carbon emissions to the atmosphere.

Read more

— Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg prove there are no limits to AI greed

— Weather intelligence startup WindBorne Systems raises $37 million in Series B financing

— The ocean currents behind the climate disaster movie ‘The Day After Tomorrow’ are real. Here’s what scientists are watching.

— Lake Mead water levels at record low; threaten to drop below 1,000 feet

— Investment flows to the energy industry expected to grow 5% to $3.4 trillion this year

Over here in London, where I’m visiting this week, the big news is that Jeff Bezos and an investor group are about to buy up to a third of the prized Liverpool Football Club, a development that should bring shivers to any and all Liverpool supporters.

In the U.S. however, the news from Bezos is far more sinister. His Amazon is poised to invest in a massive data center project in West Texas that, if built. would contain a natural gas power plant capable of generating more pollution than any other plant in the U.S., including twice as much as the dirtiest U.S. coal plant.

The news, first reported by Cleanview. which tracks data center projects, comes only days after Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg published what is being described as an AI manifesto, in which he argues that the productivity AI will bring is worth the risk, and saying his Facebook is pushing full steam ahead on AI despite calls of restraint from, well, just about everybody.

All of this comes against a backdrop of the hottest summer the U.S., and large parts of Asia and Europe have ever seen, as well as unprecedented growth in devastating wildfires. Supply changes have dramatically slowed in Europe as rivers such as the Rhine and Danube dried up and Lake Mead is at an all-time low.

And still the stock market rises as AI bedazzles investors, and tech giants blow past any semblance of climate responsibility.

That climate change’s tragic effects are unraveling right in front of our eyes and tech executives are charging ahead with ever-dirtier, ever more risky strategies, should be more than enough for any reasonable politician — if there are any — to conclude that the future of humanity can’t be trusted to billionaires.

We are all Liverpool fans now.

If you have ideas or suggestions for us, contact me directly at dcallaway@callawayclimateinsights.com.

Subscribe now

Tuesday’s subscriber insights

Weather startup WindBorne Systems raises $37 million in Series B round

Read more

Wildfires raging across the U.S. and Europe this summer are pushing more and more insurers into slashing their risk by issuing catastrophe bonds to investors, and the so-called CAT bonds on the market are already nearing levels from all of last year.

Data-tracking service Artemis said this week that sales of CAT bonds, which allow investors to share some of the risk with insurance companies by betting against natural disasters, have leaped to almost $5.2 billion this year in the wildfire category. That’s approaching the $5.5 billion in issuance last year and almost double the amount of wildfire CAT bonds the year before.

Wildfires raging across Europe this summer, from France’s Bordeaux wine region to Athens in Greece to the Scottish Highlands, have already caused an estimated 3.1 billion euros ($3.6 billion) in damage, according to the Financial Times. Risk is spreading even faster from drought conditions, which have led to shipping declines on Germany’s Rhine River. In Hungary, authorities took the unprecedented action of detonating rock formations on the Danube to direct water flows to the country’s one nuclear power plant so it could stay in operation.

While the catastrophe bond market is still small, it is booming as disasters add up, and wildfire risk is the fastest growing of all natural disasters, according to Bloomberg. Even America’s exploding prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, have seen gains in betting on wildfires to the point where U.S. regulators want to ban the practice for fear it will lead to more cases of arson.

Indeed, this summer of wildfires across the globe will lead to the spawning of several new types of businesses, from software modeling to using satellites to help track and fight fires. CAT bonds are quickly finding their place in the mix.

If you have ideas or suggestions for us, contact me directly at dcallaway@callawayclimateinsights.com.

Subscribe now

Why green investing could be making climate change worse

. . . . It may sound bizarre, but green investing might be making climate change worse, writes Mark Hulbert. A new study that seemingly contradicts every tenet of sustainable investing concludes that even small investments in brown, polluting companies might be more beneficial to the environment than large ones in traditional, highly rated green companies. The reason, according to the authors from Boston College and Yale, is that since green companies already are lowering their emissions, more investment and lower cost of capital have smaller potential for additional progress. That’s compared to brown companies, where even a small reduction in emissions would have an enormous impact. Since most companies have their cost of capital reduced by investment and more money to put into projects, investing in brown companies might actually help more. A stretch? Maybe. But we’ve seen crazier things on Wall Street.

Read the full column

Thursday’s subscriber insights

SpaceX and the year of the AI cash grab

. . . . It’s likely no coincidence that SpaceX’s first earnings report as a public company came just after one of the strongest days of the year on Wall Street. Investor spending on the AI frenzy this year is driving stock markets to new records, and SpaceX and its tech rivals are taking full advantage.

At first glance, SpaceX earnings looked pretty good. Revenue surged 92% to $7.8 billion and net loss of $541 million was only about a quarter of the $2 billion expected. But investors immediately reacted to news that the company reported capital spending on AI at $16 billion in the quarter, more than double just the three months beforehand in the first quarter. Shares fell right away and traded as much as 14% lower on Wall Street on Tuesday.

Master earnings impresario Elon Musk said he expected full-throttle spending on AI for at least the next two quarters, mirroring what he said a few weeks ago when Tesla reported a similar capex blowout. He argued, quite correctly, that all the other tech giants were doing the same thing.

It has become obvious that as Wall Street chases the AI revolution ever higher, in a summer when first SpaceX — and soon Anthropic — go public in huge initial offerings, that tech leaders see this calendar year as the time to step on the spending pedal as hard as possible. When companies can spend this much money and stocks still rise to records, it’s simply a license to keep pushing the envelope.

SpaceX investors who bought the company’s IPO at $135 a few months ago and rode it up to $177 in the first week, are now underwater, and as of today sinking further. But there are several moves left for someone like Musk, including buying Tesla and merging it with his SpaceX operations.

This week’s market run seems to us to have all the trappings of a final melt-up, a last assault on record highs before traders return from summer vacation and begin fretting about the midterms and higher interest rates again. It can always go higher, but even the tech giants can’t spend freely forever.

Editor’s picks: Symptoms of climate change; plus, UN sounds a climate alarm

Watch the video: From extreme heat and wildfire smoke to expanding infectious diseases and rising healthcare costs, the impacts of climate change are showing up in hospitals and communities across the country. In this video from the Carnegie Endowment, Jenny Keroack, a former member of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ Office of Climate Change and Health Equity, explains how climate change is reshaping healthcare, highlights innovative solutions already making hospitals more resilient, and discusses why these efforts can improve health while lowering costs.

Extreme weather disasters a global nightmare: UN

Climate-driven disasters are reaching “nightmare proportions” due to humanity’s “addiction” to fossil fuels, a top UN official warned this past week. “The climate alarm is blaring from every direction,” said UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell in a statement. More than 617,000 acres of land in Europe has burned, with 1,254 fires detected since the start of 2026. Record-breaking wildfires are tearing through France, Spain and other parts of Europe, forcing mass evacuations and hammering regional and national economies, following brutal heatwaves that have dried out landscapes, a report from UN news says. In Japan, records are tumbling as temperatures soar, now reaching the longest over 100°F heat streak ever recorded. Stiell said these “spiraling disasters” are now the lived reality for billions in a world getting rapidly hotter as humanity moves too slowly from fossil fuels to clean energy — and fails to sufficiently protect forests.

Latest findings: New research, studies and projects

Climate change could shrink water flow from the West’s headwaters

The flow of small mountain streams that feed many of the West’s rivers has been steadily declining across headwater watersheds in the western U.S. since 1950 and could decrease by 45% to 65% by the end of this century if current climate trends continue. Phys.org reports on a new study published recently in Earth’s Future that analyzes 75 years of streamflow data from 115 headwater basins across 11 Western states and uses machine learning models to project future conditions under multiple climate scenarios. Researchers found that warming temperatures, shrinking snowpack and increasingly dry conditions are already changing when and how water moves through mountain watersheds, according to the report. The base flow of these mountain streams “helps sustain water supplies, supports fish and wildlife habitat and helps maintain streamflow during dry periods. Reduced groundwater contributions could also increase vulnerability to drought and wildfire across the region,” the report says.

Words to live by . . . .

“Zeus has covered the wide heavens with cloud, and troubled the sea, and the tempest blast of every wind sweeps over me.” — From Homer’s “The Odyssey.”

Subscribe now

(Mark Hulbert, an author and longtime investment columnist, is the founder of the Hulbert Financial Digest; his Hulbert Ratings audits investment newsletter returns.)

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (Callaway Climate Insights) — Investors interested in mitigating climate change would do well to consider investing in the worst greenhouse gas emitters instead of those ranked best by the ESG rating services.

That’s the astonishing conclusion of a study that this week was accepted for publication in the Journal of Finance, one of the top academic journals. The research is titled “Counterproductive Sustainable Investing: The Impact Elasticity of Brown and Green Firms” and was conducted by Samuel Hartzmark of Boston College and Kelly Shue of Yale.

You might wonder how to square this new study’s findings with those of other studies I’ve reported on recently which found that investing in green firms reduced their cost of capital and thereby enabled them to undertake more green projects. The new study’s authors don’t take issue with those prior studies, but they find that investors potentially could get more bang for their buck by investing in brown companies.

Read more