Climate solutions without a home

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The Sun emitted yet another strong solar flare on May 29. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory captured an image of the event, above. Harmful radiation from a flare can’t pass through Earth’s atmosphere to physically affect humans. But, NASA says, they can disturb the atmosphere in the layer where GPS and telecom signals travel.

For the third time in a bit more than a year, an attempt by scientists to spray chemicals or liquified salt into the atmosphere to see if it altered climate patterns was met by swift local resistance from nervous politicians — this time in California.

Following failed attempts in Sweden and Mexico, scientists are back to the drawing board, as it becomes clear that public officials are too nervous about unintended consequences to permit that type of messing with nature in their backyards. As climate change’s impact hits hard around the world this summer, the calls to attempt geoengineering projects will only increase, but it’s clear that a more controlled atmosphere will be needed for these scientific leaps.

Scientists had started spraying liquified salt into the air above San Francisco Bay from a retired Navy ship outside of Alameda, Calif., and were about two weeks into their project when they were ordered to stop, according to Politico’s local news site. The experiment had hoped to blast the salt into the air several times a week for about four months to study how it mixed with the wind patterns.

The postponement is just the latest potential climate solution that has been shelved because of political concern. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul on Wednesday indefinitely postponed a controversial congestion toll plan to reduce traffic in New York City because of concerns over the impact on working people, and potential election-year fallout. In Europe, the prospects for a more Conservative EU government this summer could scale back many climate projects in the name of energy and economic security. But geoengineering is another animal altogether. It risks altering the atmosphere in ways we can’t fix.

Geoengineering has long been confined to the realm of science fiction, dubbed too dangerous as long as traditional means of reducing greenhouse gases are available. But as it becomes clear that oil companies continue to drill and pollute the air, and nascent carbon capture and removal technologies are still years away from operating at scale, scientists have become more open to more risky ideas.

So far, all the projects have been tiny and caused no harm to the environment. But the drumbeat of attempts in the past year portends a more formal and grander experiment around the corner. As climate disasters add up, at some point it will be worth the risk.

Don’t forget to contact me directly if you have suggestions or ideas at dcallaway@callawayclimateinsights.com.

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Zeus: Reassessing India’s climate play after Modi election debacle

. . . . India Prime Minister Narenda Modi had hoped his election to a third term this week would decisively cement his BJP party’s hold on government and maintain the policies he put in place to keep the world’s largest emerging market’s economy on pace for a 7% or 8% gain this year, writes David Callaway. A stunning takedown at the parliamentary level, though, left BJP with just a thin majority in government. The messy situation reflects India’s climate policy reality as a massive heatwave drives temperatures above 112°F this week in the north of the country. Climate investors see two ways to play India against this backdrop, and like the country’s politics, neither is a sure thing.

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Thursday’s subscriber insights

OPEC headquarters, Vienna. Photo: Istvan/flickr.

OPEC just did to oil giants what an entire proxy season of climate activism could not

. . . . Maybe climate activists should spend more time lobbying OPEC. The oil cartel’s decision to allow voluntary supply cuts to begin to unwind later this year confused the market by appearing to possibly add supply when demand is already weak. Crude futures notched five consecutive sessions of declines before settling slightly higher Wednesday. Oil stocks followed suit, with Exxon XOM 0.00%↑, Chevron, Shell SHEL 0.00%↑ and BP BP 0.00%↑ all dropping sharply late last week and early this week, before recovering slightly.

That’s something that hasn’t happened over the spring proxy season, as climate activists were soundly defeated at shareholder votes at oil company annual meetings. All four oil giants are doing their best to ramp up production, with some cutting renewable energy programs to do so, to sell as much oil as they can while they can. But weakened demand is something they are racing against time to escape, and when OPEC makes decisions like this, the impact is felt worldwide. Climate activists, through no fault of their own, scored a small victory.

Here are the U.S. counties and states that suffered the most power outages last year

. . . . As extreme heat starts to bite hard in Southern Florida and Texas, we can expect that this summer will be the most shocking yet in terms of unbearable heat domes and heat stroke-caused deaths. But another side effect will be a surge in power as people seek air conditioning, and its impact on the U.S.’s three aging electrical grids.

This explanatory story by our partner, ClimateCrisis247, shows where the most power outages were in the U.S. last year, by county. Texas, Louisiana, and California counties ranked high on the list, despite being oil states with ready supplies.

Already, natural gas prices have started to rise this summer, with the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) up more than 20% in the past 10 days. As the heat continues, and hurricane season begins in earnest, we can expect the strongest test yet of our grid systems, and a lot more talk about investment in improving them.

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Editor’s picks: California’s scenic Highway 1 reopens

Caltrans workers and the California Highway Patrol monitor traffic along part of central California’s Highway 1 where the roadway has eroded. The scenic Big Sur coast route has been plagued with problems. Photo: Caltrans.

Highway 1 in Big Sur reopen (mostly) for summer travel 

California’s beloved summer road-trip route along Big Sur has been reopened in time for the summer season — and much to the relief of area residents — after another chunk of the roadway fell into the Pacific over Easter weekend. Residents were cut off and state parks were closed. But that section was repaired and opened with one-lane access in late May. According to California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office, “now that Caltrans has stabilized the southbound lane and preserved the northbound lane, the site will continue to be monitored and visually inspected. A project to construct a permanent repair to the highway at this location is currently in the design phase, with an estimated completion date of spring 2025.” A report from the Santa Barbara Independent says the eroding mountain face that supports Highway 1 has undergone 1,500 recorded landslides. The road has been closed more than 55 times since its completion in 1937 after 18 years of construction, almost entirely due to landslides. 

Start your velos

Parisians now prefer to ride their bikes than drive cars inside the city center, a new planning study shows. Overall, walking and public transportation are still the most popular ways to get around the French capital, according to a report from Euronews.green. An urban planning study shows more than 11% of people use bicycles in the center of Paris. Just 4% of trips are by car. “Ten years ago, who could have predicted that bicycles would take over cars?,” the city’s deputy mayor in charge of transport, David Belliard, said on X. “There’s still a lot to do but this is a first victory.” Euronews.green notes that the capital has been cracking down on cars in the center of Paris in recent years. Older gasoline and diesel cars will be banned starting in 2025.

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Latest findings: New research, studies and projects

How climate change hits clean energy

This study examines the effects of climate change on investment decisions in clean energy. The author of the paper titled Impacts of Climate Change on Clean Energy Investment says The results indicate that overall wind power investment is more negatively affected by cold extremes, while both cold and hot extremes significantly reduce solar capacity. Precipitation extremes yield no significant negative impact on wind capacity, whereas wet extremes adversely affect solar capacity, with higher precipitation intensity having more substantial effects. Solar capacity is more susceptible to weather extremes than wind but is more adaptive to dry extremes. The results also highlight greater climate vulnerability for regions with higher renewable capacity and emphasize the importance of understanding seasonal and regional heterogeneity to grasp the impact patterns of weather extremes on clean energy investment. Author: Jie Yang, University of Toyama - Center for Far Eastern Studies

More of the latest research:

• Taxing Dirty Luxuries

• Is Europe on track toward net zero mobility?

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Eastern Pacific. Image: NASA’s Earth Observatory.

Words to live by . . . .

“There is, then, no water that is wholly of the Pacific, or wholly of the Atlantic, or of the Indian or the Antarctic. The surf that we find exhilarating at Virginia Beach or at La Jolla today may have lapped at the base of Antarctic icebergs or sparkled in the Mediterranean sun, years ago, before it moved through dark and unseen waterways to the place we find it now. It is by the deep, hidden currents that the oceans are made one.” — R. Carson, “The Sea Around Us,” Oxford University Press, 1951.