Election and climate: Do we care or not?

Plus, what's behind the EU's stunning 8.3% reduction in emissions last year

In today’s edition:

— As world waits for U.S. election results, climate change records most dangerous year yet

— The European Union hits renewable milestone as 2023 emissions fell the most in years

— Harris and Trump’s promises and proposed policies on climate change as Election Day arrives

— Walmart adds Chevy BrightDrop electric vans from Canada to its home delivery fleet

— Global electric grid investment to almost triple to $811 billion in five years, BloombergNEF estimates

Photo: Nick Caffacus/VCU Capital News Service.

I’ve covered every U.S. presidential election since Reagan/Mondale in 1984, and the one thing that has never changed is that when we all wake up on election day, it’s too close to call.

Any serious media observer can see it coming months away. First one candidate is ahead in the polls. Then another comes back. Then another shift. Then another. And by Election Day the country is on a knife edge of anxiety and alcohol-fueled stress, and completely prepped to sit back and absorb media all day. And the next.

But the results are usually not that close. Reagan won in a landslide, despite the race being too close to call. Bush defeated Dukakis big time in 1988 despite the Massachusetts governor closing in the polls to a tie in the last three days. OK, Bush-Gore in 2000 was indeed too close to call, and Trump-Clinton in 2016.

But otherwise, we’ll know in a day or two, given the slow ballot counting in Arizona and Nevada. For climate investors, the results can’t come soon enough. The winner will dictate the climate efforts of the world’s second largest polluter for the next four years; a period that is shaping up to be the tipping point for the world.

The United Nations claims global temperatures are on course to exceed 3.1°C above pre-industrial levels, which would render vast parts of it uninhabitable. Polar ice caps are melting, ocean currents are shifting. And a new report said the worldwide GDP impact of global warming could be four times worse than thought. This year, 2024, will be the hottest and most dangerous year yet.

The stakes for investors in renewable energy are high, from electric vehicles to solar and wind manufacturers and battery makers to AI data centers and grid operators. The stakes for millions of people are higher still. That is too important for such an election to be too close to call.

We expect a decisive victory in this election. “American will always do the right thing, after they have exhausted all other possibilities,” Winston Churchill once told Congress. Today, we hold the world’s fate in our hands. Let’s get it right.

Don’t forget to contact me directly if you have suggestions or ideas dcallaway@callawayclimateinsights.com.

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Tuesday’s subscriber insights

A wind farm in Italy.

Clean energy gains in EU led to huge emissions reduction in 2023