Era of 1.5°C. climate heating will herald surge in debt forgiveness

Plus, how Paris is cleaning up its act for the Olympics this summer

In today’s edition:

— As the world crashes thru its threshold of climate heating disaster — perhaps this year — sovereign debt relief deals will dominate international markets

— More than half of all electric vehicles sold this year will be purchased in China

— Scientists see earth reaching the 1.5°C ceiling this year. One sees 1.7°C by May

— Paris Olympics gears up to be most sustainable global sporting event yet

— Extreme weather is nothing for this famous New Hampshire observatory

Bundle up: Accuweather’s Jason Nicholls, @jnmet, says be on the lookout for flooding risk across the northeast U.S. into Wednesday, with snowmelt and heavy rainfall. And snow and ice will spread from Pennsylvania to New England.

Two ominous reports this week spell out just how bad 2024 will be for the climate, and will all but ensure sovereign debt markets enter a new era of debt forgiveness as financial markets suffer for government inaction.

Veteran climate scientist James Hansen made headlines by predicting the Earth’s average global temperature increase would exceed 1.5°C, the heat threshold commonly associated with climate disaster, by May of this year — a decade earlier than expected — even rising to 1.7°C above where it was in the industrial age. It’s currently estimated to be about 1.48°C. (See insight below).

And the United Nations issued its annual impact report, predicting a year of more climate disasters and deadly storms and claiming that climate investment needs to reach an unrealistic $150 trillion to yield a major economic transition away from fossil fuels by 2050.

Against that backdrop, the $100 billion a year demanded by poorer nations from major economies to help cope with climate events seems easy, but even that has proven elusive since it was agreed upon three years ago.

Look for it to instead appear in the form of debt forgiveness, with Wall Street bearing the brunt of government inaction as it has many times before. The time for creative debt deals, as with the 1.5°C world, has arrived. But both will be fleeting, and soon more serious numbers will be on the table.

Don’t forget to contact me directly if you have suggestions or ideas at dcallaway@callawayclimateinsights.com.

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