Next up for Supreme Court after tariffs - climate wars
On fourth anniversary of Ukraine invasion, the energy world is unrecognizable
In today’s edition:
— SCOTUS will decide this year whether to take up a major climate case against Big Oil
— On fourth anniversary of Ukraine invasion, the green energy world has completely flipped
— Historic climate trial taking place in Paris courtroom
— Can the world’s biggest polluter really cut emissions?
— Renewable energy now represents a third of electricity produced worldwide
No doubt the most uncomfortable nine people in the House chamber tonight for President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address will be the Supreme Court justices, dressed in their traditional black robes and just waiting for Trump to take his best shot after their tariff ruling last week.
Bettors on the Kalshi prediction market think there is a 75% chance he’ll mention the Supremes, more than are betting he’ll say “drill, baby, drill” or “fake news” but less than the 85% betting he will say “alien.” We’re counting on something super snarky and likely in the first few minutes, as the justices typically sit front and center.
But the president should tread carefully, as the justices this week decided to consider whether they will hear a major new climate case working its way through the courts, one that would force big oil companies such as Exxon Mobil XOM 0.00%↑ and Chevron CVX 0.00%↑. Lawsuits have been working their way through state courts for almost a decade and have even resulted in a few rulings against the oil companies, which is why they are petitioning for the Supreme Court to make one federal ruling once and for all, based on a case in Colorado.
The court will decide first whether it has the jurisdiction to hear the case and then take up the question raised by the oil companies of whether a “preemption” ruling against them would violate the constitution as well as the Clean Air Act. Playing into this dynamic is the recent move by the Trump administration to remove the “endangerment finding,” the 2009 scientific ruling that pollution and harmful emissions contribute to global warming that backs up the Clean Air Act.
If the Clean Air Act no longer means anything, one would think the oil companies would be free to do what they want. But legal scholars claim without it then states are free to impose their own regulations, and legal findings against Big Oil. That would be a worst-case scenario for oil stocks.
All of his will of course take years, but the Supreme Court is finally in the game, and its new relationship with Trump and his team kicks off tonight.
If you have ideas or suggestions for us, contact me directly at
dcallaway@callawayclimateinsights.com.
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On fourth anniversary of Ukraine invasion, green energy world has changed completely
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