Tesla investors get new target as EVs show signs of life
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I finally broke down — actually my old car broke down — and bought an electric vehicle last week, a beautiful red Mustang Mach-E Premium from Ford F 0.00%↑. I’m probably last to the EV party in my neighborhood, but after two years of poor EV sales across the industry, the enthusiasm seems to be picking up again.
No better signal of that than Tesla’s TSLA 0.00%↑ earnings this week. Following upticks in sales of EVs at Ford and GM GM 0.00%↑ this past quarter, Tesla reported earnings that beat estimates for the first time in more than a year, as well as its highest cash levels in more than two years. But the real red cape to investor bulls was another in a long line of dramatic predictions by controversial CEO Elon Musk.
Musk said the company could see a “slight” increase in EV sales in the fourth quarter, which implied that the company might break the 500,000-threshold for the first time. Musk is well-known for moving the goalposts, especially with promises of new sales and new products — such as the robotaxi. But his follow-up prediction that vehicle growth might reach 20% to 30% next year was enough to recreate the old magic, at least for now, and set a new target for investors.
Tesla shares are now up about 4% for the year, which isn’t much to boast about. But if two years of price cuts and now an era of lower financing rates have actually started to move the EV market again, then investors plowing into Tesla this week might have a point.
Shares of other EV makers popped briefly on the Tesla news, but then fell back. Both Ford and GM reported upticks in their own EV sales during the third quarter, and investors will now look to Rivian RIVN 0.00%↑ when it next reports earnings on Nov. 7.
If anything, the renewed enthusiasm for EVs sets up the fourth quarter and next year to be decisive periods for long-suffering Tesla investors. I didn’t really look at the Tesla when I began hunting for an EV a few weeks back. But I’ll be watching its shares closely as the quarter develops.
Don’t forget to contact me directly if you have suggestions or ideas dcallaway@callawayclimateinsights.com.
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From the Atacama Desert to Sonora, Latin America is ramping up its solar power
. . . . El Romero, the largest photovoltaic solar plant in Latin America, supplies enough energy to meet the needs of 240,000 homes just outside Chile’s capital, writes Mike Molinski. In Mexico City, a new installation of 32,000 solar panels over rooftops across 52 acres will generate up to 25 GWh of renewable electricity per year. And in Brazil, solar installations of about 17 GWh last year placed Brazil among the countries with the most solar power installed in the world. As Brazil prepares to host next year’s milestone COP30 UN climate summit in Belém, the country and those around it are quickly and quietly becoming bigger players on the global solar scene. Molinski looks at the opportunities, and growing pains, for a region not known for speedy transitions.
Thursday’s subscriber insights
Global wind woes take down high-flying GE Vernova for second quarter
. . . . The continuing struggle of offshore wind companies globally spurred high-flying GE Vernova to a miss on its third quarter earnings yesterday, as what it called “continued incremental losses” in its offshore wind division caused it to report revenue lower than targets as well.
GE Vernova shares GEV 0.00%↑, which have soared this year after the company became public during the breakup of General Electric into three different companies, fell slightly on the news, likely as some investors used the declines as entry points to the fast-moving shares.
This is the second time that the wind division has caused trouble inside GEV, something the company said earlier this year that it hoped to correct by the end of the year. GEV management has been more than transparent, but rather than an operational problem the company seems to be simply another victim of a global lethargy in offshore wind in the past few years that have hurt growth.
Wind capacity globally has more than doubled in the past five years, according to BloombergNEF, but solar has tripled. Cheaper solar panels — many of them from China — have been easier to build with then costly steel wind turbines. And regulatory obstacles, particularly in the Eastern U.S., have held back installation schedules.
Several large wind companies, including Danish giant Vestas Wind Systems (DK:VWS) and Siemens Gamesa have struggled with wind projects and supply chain issues, and GEV appears to be no different. While investors largely gave GEV a pass on the miss this time, they will be watching more closely ahead of Q4 earnings.
Editor’s picks: Kittennnns… iiiinnn….spaaaace; plus, tribal marine sanctuary established
Watch the video: A 2024 NASA space communications experiment has recently caught the attention of the internet for — what else? — a cat video. NASA says its Deep Space Optical Communications experiment beamed an ultra-high definition streaming video late last year from a record-setting 19 million miles away (about 80 times the Earth-Moon distance). “The milestone is part of a NASA technology demonstration aimed at streaming very high-bandwidth video and other data from deep space — enabling future human missions beyond Earth orbit,” the agency said. NASA said the short ultra-high definition video, uploaded before launch, features an orange tabby cat named Taters, the pet of a JPL employee, chasing a laser pointer, with overlaid graphics. The video signal took 101 seconds to reach Earth, sent at the system’s maximum bit rate of 267 Mbps. Capable of sending and receiving near-infrared signals, the instrument beamed an encoded near-infrared laser to the Hale Telescope at Caltech’s Palomar Observatory in San Diego County, where it was downloaded. Each frame from the looping video was then sent live to NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California, where the video was played in real time. As ScienceAlert.com put it, “As a proof of concept for a high-speed communication line, most of the internet would agree that this is a good use of bandwidth.”
First tribal marine sanctuary approved
The U.S. has finally approved the first indigenous-nominated national marine sanctuary, a 4,543 square mile area along the California coast. Chumash Heritage National Marine Sanctuary is America’s 17th national marine sanctuary, the sixth off the U.S. West Coast, and is one of the largest in the National Marine Sanctuary System, according to NOAA. The sanctuary provides protection to nationally significant natural, cultural, and historical resources while bringing new opportunities for research, community engagement, and education and outreach activities, the agency says. Violet Sage Walker, chairwoman of the Northern Chumash Tribal Council, told The Guardian, “We had huge, overwhelming support for this area to be protected, and we brought communities together.” Walker was integral in pushing for the sanctuary, located off the coast of Santa Barbara County, to be nominated.
Latest findings: New research, studies and projects
Climate change, portfolio rebalancing and risk pricing
A new study, titled Climate Change Risk and Foreign Portfolio Investments, examines the sensitivity of foreign portfolio investments (FPI) to the climate change risk of host countries. While climate issues have gained increased attention recently, the impact of climate exposure on investments remains unclear. The authors address this critical empirical question by investigating whether portfolio investors can identify and respond to such risks. Using annual data from the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey of the International Monetary Fund over the period 2000-2020 for the top-ten source and 75 host countries, we find that FPI inflows decrease in host countries with higher climate change risk. We also observe that portfolio outflows, particularly from the U.S., UK, Japan, and France, exhibit greater sensitivity to the climate change risk of host countries. Authors: Falik Shear, National Textile University; Badar Nadeem Ashraf, London South Bank University
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Words to live by . . . .
“In the case of climate, we are not the dinosaurs, we are the meteor. We are not only in danger, we are the danger. But we are also the solution.” — António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations.
fabulous....psyched to get started......tks Ellen
Welcome to the club! My son's had his Bolt since 2015 and my husband started leasing an Equinox in August. We have had solar since 2016 so refueling has never been an issue.