Trump, claiming victory in Middle East, might soon turn to Greenland

Plus, EU slashes sustainability reporting proposals as White House turns up pressure

In today’s edition:

— How the Conquest of the Arctic is shaping up

— EU slashes sustainability reporting plans

— Famed vineyards threatened by intemperate heat and rain damage

— Insurance can’t cover all climate risks for companies

— CO₂ emissions vary wildly by country. Who’s the worst?

Photo: XL Catlin Seaview Survey/Carbon Brief.

The Earth has reached the first of what scientists are calling a series of catastrophic climate “tipping points” — the widespread death of coral reefs, according to a landmark report produced by 160 scientists across the world. Warm water coral reefs now face a long-term decline, along with the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people.

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With the glow of a Middle East peace deal at his back, President Donald Trump will now determine where his next big success needs to come from. While most expectations are that he will turn back to Ukraine, it’s possible he will instead first try to push a series of winning energy deals in Greenland and the Arctic.

The White House is rabid to stockpile minerals in its AI arm race with China and Greenland commands plenty. We’ve always thought that rather than some sort of geopolitical move, such as an invasion, Trump would instead focus his Greenland ambitions on hoovering up as many mineral deals as possible, as well as positioning stations for U.S. forces in the Arctic.

Russia is moving fast to open a key shipping route through its waters from Northern Europe to Asia, and with that will come an international scramble for territory and security. Just last week, Denmark said it would invest up to $8.5 billion in defense of its Arctic positions, including Greenland. Those investments include a fleet of new fighter jets as well a new drone force, to offset increasing Russian incursions.

Trump also signed a $6.1 billion deal with Finland last week to strengthen shipbuilding cooperation tied to military routes and minerals extraction.

All that new shipping and military jockeying will come at the expense of the climate, as global shipping fleets and their emissions move to the north, where routes to and from Asia are up to 40% shorter. That will only melt the Arctic ice faster, critics argue, though Russia counters that shorter routes will reduce emissions.

Either way, the conquest of the Arctic is shaping up to be one of the business and geopolitical stories of the century. The only way for the U.S. — with little territory in the Arctic bar Alaska — to gain power will be through business deals.

Trump no doubt knows this as he calculates where he can score his next big wins.

If you have ideas or suggestions for us, contact me directly at
dcallaway@callawayclimateinsights.com.

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EU slashes sustainability reporting plans as U.S. piles on the pressure