Washington 2025 outlook: What cleantech policies will survive?

Biden leaves an ambitious, ambiguous and fragile climate legacy.

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During a live unveiling event in 2019, the Teslas Cybertruck’s window shattered when Franz von Holzhausen, Tesla's chief designer, threw a steel ball at it to demonstrate the durability of the glass. Photo: Kruzat/Wikimedia.

(Bill Sternberg is a veteran Washington journalist and former editorial page editor of USA Today.)

WASHINGTON, D.C. (Callaway Climate Insights) — If the classic holiday poem by Clement Clarke Moore were adapted to contemporary politics, it might open something like this:

’Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the White House

Joe Biden’s aides were prepping for the return of the louse.

The climate funds were spent with no time to spare

In fears that Donald Trump soon would be there.

As Joe Biden gets ready to vacate the presidency next month, staffers at agencies ranging from the EPA to Energy to Treasury are racing to Trump-proof the incumbent’s climate legacy — a legacy that is consequential, contradictory and vulnerable.

During his four-year term, Biden did more to combat global warming than any previous president. His signature climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act, directs hundreds of billions of dollars toward clean-energy programs. He also returned the United States to the 2015 Paris climate accords, enacted new fuel economy rules for cars and trucks, and set stringent limits on carbon dioxide emissions from power plants.

At the same time, in an effort to keep gasoline prices low and boost his (and later Kamala Harris’) election prospects, Biden took a number of actions contrary to his climate goals. On his watch, the U.S. produced more crude oil than any other nation, and exports of natural gas hit record levels. He tapped the strategic petroleum reserve, approved the controversial Willow drilling project in Alaska, and maintained tariffs that protect U.S. companies but make cleantech adoption slower and more costly.

This balancing act satisfied neither climate activists who want faster action nor conservatives who think the threat is overblown. With Trump poised to reoccupy the White House on Jan. 20 and Republicans narrowly in control of both chambers of Congress, the question consuming policymakers, entrepreneurs and investors is: How much of Biden’s climate legacy will survive the second Trump administration?

The short answer is: It depends.