Whatever you call them, Ukraine peace talks have awakened markets
Plus, Tesla's self-driving hopes become hostage to U.S.-China trade talks
In today’s edition:
— The Ukraine peace talks are messy and controversial, but also a catalyst for a major market shift
— Tesla’s hopes for autonomous driving in China have become ensnared in a larger trade standoff
— When climate change leads to more snow. Tales from the Great Lakes.
— Sustainable, anti-plastic packaging at risk from Trump tariffs
— Clean energy capacity jumps 47% in 2024 in U.S., led by solar, battery power
Some call them peace talks. Others call them an illegal and immoral violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty. Even the whisper of that European bogeyman — appeasement — is in the air in diplomatic circles. But whatever you call the U.S.-Russia talks over in Saudi Arabia this week, from an investor standpoint they could be a catalyst to change the energy crisis narrative on the continent.
Already we’ve seen European defense stocks leap on the prospects for higher defense spending among major powers. Rare earth minerals are also in play as President Donald Trump said he might demand payment from Ukrainian resources for U.S. aid. And the potential for Russia to turn back on its oil spigots after three years is certainly keeping a lid on oil prices for now.
If that’s not enough, gold prices could rise above $3,000 an ounce for the first time in the next few weeks.
The energy crisis narrative has driven markets in Europe ever since Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago this month. It’s roiled prices across Europe, added to inflation, toppled governments, and crippled the sustainable efforts of the EU and countries such as Germany and the UK.
For better or for worse, the prospect of an end to fighting in Ukraine, however it comes about, is a dynamic that can lead to material moves in trading and investing themes. We will leave it to others to debate the geopolitical implications of the talks. But the undercurrents in sustainable and mineral markets, after three years of a one-way flow, are starting to shift with these new developments.
Don’t forget to contact me directly if you have suggestions or ideas dcallaway@callawayclimateinsights.com.
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Tesla’s China plans become ensnared in larger trade standoff
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