As heat, wildfires hit hard, climate's the lost topic in presidential debate
As heat, wildfires hit hard, climate's the lost topic in presidential debate
Welcome to Callaway Climate Insights. Election season is officially here. How the U.S., Britain and France vote will dictate climate policy for years to come. Enjoy, and share.
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On the face of it, there’s really not a lot about climate change to fight over in Thursday’s U.S. presidential debate. President Joe Biden is spending tens of billions to fight it. Former President Donald Trump denies it and wants to keep drilling. Battle lines are long drawn.
But with half the country wilting under a relentless heat wave, and wildfire season off to an unprecedented start out west — more than 100 new fires in California in the past two days — one might ask, how can they afford not to mention it?
We expect Biden to mention it at least a few times, particularly the irony that conservative red states are benefitting the most from renewable energy. Trump will almost certainly echo the oil line that more drilling and carbon tech advances are the American business ingenuity way around the problem. Then on to immigration, border security, abortion, inflation, and taxes.
It’s in the thicket of those last two topics, tied to the economy, that the climate message could seep through from both sides, however. The transition to clean energy is an economic and markets story, after all. Both Biden and Trump think they have the answers to create more jobs and keep the power on. How they present those cases, and not just the soundbites about old age, legal troubles and Democratic values, will likely carry the day for many independent voters.
Climate change may not be the most important topic this week, but it will be the economic stage from which the next four years will have to be governed.
Don’t forget to contact me directly if you have suggestions or ideas at dcallaway@callawayclimateinsights.com.
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Two years on, funds’ voter choice programs lack attention, influence
. . . . When large fund managers such as BlackRock, Schwab, State Street, and Vanguard launched voter choice programs two years ago to allow customers to vote their own preferences on corporate resolutions for the companies they hold, it was billed as a way to let shareholders have more of a say on issues such as climate change, writes Mark Hulbert. But most of these programs have only attracted a fraction of the voting attention they had promoted, raising speculation they merely diluted shareholder influence while getting the fund managers off the hook from climate critics. The only big losers have been climate resolutions. . . .
Thursday’s subscriber insights
Is VW targeting a Rivian acquisition?
. . . . It’s tempting to think Volkswagen’s $5 billion investment in Rivian this week is a precursor to an acquisition a few years down the line. After all, one of the things keeping Lucid Motors LCID 0.00%↑ going is the fact that the Saudis own a majority stake.
But another angle may be that VW is simply replacing Ford F 0.00%↑ as the latest automotive partner of the innovative but struggling EV maker as it and primary shareholder Amazon look for more cash to keep production going.
There’s no doubt Rivian has found a market for its light trucks and SUVs. And its stock RIVN 0.00%↑ soared this week on the investment news. But the company still lacks the production capacity to make real money on its offerings, having produced only some 14,000 electric vehicles in the first quarter, vs. 433,000 for Tesla TSLA 0.00%↑.
It’s important to remember that almost half of VW’s $5 billion is deferred to stock purchases over the next two years. Having seen Ford suffer on its investment earlier, it makes sense the Germans are being cautious about throwing good money after bad.
The answer may lie in the technology value VW can derive from Rivian over the next few years. Unlike its American counterparts, VW seems more committed to an EV future. Should it want to consummate the partnership with an acquisition in coming years, it will certainly be a preferred partner (as well as Amazon). But we’re not holding our breath. . . .
Mexico’s Sheinbaum begins to nominate a climate cabinet
. . . . While financial markets look ahead to the British, French and U.S. elections, one interesting climate development is taking place south of the U.S. border in Mexico, where President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist soon to run an oil state, has just named a biologist and another climate scientist to the post of environmental secretary.
This excellent post on LinkedIn from Andrew Law, Climate Scientists, Oil State, which launches The Mexico Brief, analyzes the dilemma in Mexico as new leadership takes over a country dependent on oil but in the throes of a major environmental crisis. We suggest you follow Andrew going forward to stay on top of this development, which could become a big opportunity for Biden, or a sticking point in neighbor relations with a second Trump administration. . . .
Plastics recycling may not be all it thinks it is
. . . . And while we’re shouting out new summer reading, take a look at this excellent investigation piece from ProPublica on misconceptions from Big Plastic about some of the benefits of plastic recycling. The plastics problem is one of the biggest environmental dilemmas we face. Any reasoned analysis of how we solve it and with what technology is welcome. Read Selling A Miracle: The Delusion of Advanced Plastic Recycling Using Pyrolysis.
Editor’s picks: Tipping point for Great Plains farmers; plus, are you ready for summer vacay?
Watch the video: In the heart of the country, Great Plains farmers and ranchers produce a quarter of all U.S. crops and 40% of its beef. But they rely on a resource that has been slowly drying up: water. Stephanie Sy reports from Kansas for the PBS NewsHour series on the impact of climate change, Tipping Point.
Plan your summer adventure
Bears? Check. Salmon? Check? Visitors with cameras at a safe distance? Check. For whatever else you need for your summer adventure in the great outdoors, read the trip planning guide from the National Park Service. It’ll help you figure out where to go, when, how to get there, what to take, and what to do. Check out the regulations, and find out what permits or reservations you’ll need. Don’t forget, not all national parks are in the wilderness. Next week’s Independence Day celebrations include the Capitol Fourth Concert on Thursday at 8 p.m. ET on the west lawn of the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C. (and on TV on your local PBS station, or streamed live here). The National Park Service will again host the annual Independence Day fireworks celebration on the National Mall just after 9 p.m. Remember, planning is important. “If you don’t know where you are going, you’ll end up someplace else,” said Yogi Berra. That’s Yogi Berra, not Yogi Bear.
Where the wildfires are
. . . . There were hundreds of fires burning across the U.S. Wednesday, with the majority of new fires (106) starting in just the past two days in California. According to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), there were six new large incidents nationwide, and 19 uncontained large fires. In the U.S. all together, 6,343 firefighters were active and 183,613 acres burned in the past two days. California is the hotspot right now, with 27 new fires sparking in the northern part of the state yesterday. Fast response from CAL FIRE and local crews kept them all from becoming large fires — so far. In the Southern California region, there were 79 new fires, including two large uncontained fires. There were 14 new fires reported in the southwestern U.S. The National Weather Service and the NIFC report the wildfire potential outlook for July shows significant wildfire potential for the Pacific Northwest (the Olympic Peninsula and Greater Puget Sound Area), southeast Oregon, southern Idaho and northern Nevada, as well as central New Mexico. Above normal significant wildland fire potential indicates a greater than usual likelihood that significant wildland fires will occur.
Words to live by . . . .
“The reality is that we’re all deeply connected. Not only to each other, but to the ocean and the planet as well.” — Marc Benioff, chair and CEO, Salesforce.