Climate progress, hanging in a year of 27 global elections, will come down to the wire in U.S.

While progress was made in some countries, setbacks in others leave the world looking to the November's presidential vote after an historic global elections year.

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By Kai Peters

(Kai Peters is a sophomore studying Environmental Science and Policy at the University of California at Irvine. He spent part of his summer developing this special elections report for Callaway Climate Insights).

SAN FRANCISCO (Callaway Climate Insights) — Three-quarters of the way through one of the highest-stakes global election years in history with 27 national elections around the world, the 2024 opportunity has been a mixed bag for climate investors as we head toward the most critical election of them all in the U.S. in November.

While Mexico, the UK, and France all picked leaders who will help them advance climate change policy, other countries such as Indonesia, Russia, Venezuela, and importantly, India, all took steps backwards in terms of the candidates they elected and their views on global warming. Still more countries and economic blocs, such as Taiwan, Finland and the European Union, posted what climate analysts would call mixed results; the environmental impact of these elections is yet to be determined. 

Mexico in particular elected Claudia Sheinbaum, a scientist and academic who served as the Secretary of the Environment of Mexico City for six years. She will be replacing Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a president who made little effort with regards to climate policy during his term as president.

On the flip side in Venezuela, president Nicolas Maduro refused to step down in the face of election results that showed a landslide for the opposition. Venezuela’s deep history in oil production is on the line, and Maduro blames climate change on richer countries and demands they pay for it.

The U.S. presidential election is arguably the most critical of the year for climate policy because the U.S. is the world’s second largest greenhouse gas emitter. With the two sides set and very clear in their differing perspectives, this is a crucial election for climate investors.

Former president Donald Trump continues to downplay the threat of climate change and has promised to roll back regulations set by the Biden Administration. He is also a major supporter of the fossil fuel industry and will form policy to help these companies if elected. A Trump win would be detrimental to the future of climate policy in the U.S., and therefore, around the world. 

Vice President Kamala Harris on the other hand has shown that she recognizes the threat climate change poses and is ready to take action as president. From being an attorney general who took on big oil companies, to leading beside Joe Biden in his presidency on a mission to break barriers for climate policy, Harris has the experience and knowledge to take major action. In her previous campaign, Harris promised to stop fracking, a method to extract natural gas and oil that important swing states, such as Pennsylvania rely on, but she has since backed off.

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Read more, from Bill Sternberg: Will the f-word swing the presidential election? Harris’ fracking flip-flop could haunt her in gas-rich Pennsylvania.

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The major debate between Trump and Harris this week ended with most pundits saying Harris won, and clean energy stocks such as solar and battery companies all rose in the wake of the event.

With climate change only worsening and extreme heat waves blanketing major countries around the world this year, the stakes are higher than ever. Callaway Climate Insights has researched the 12 most critical, climate policy defining elections of the year and summarized the overall environmental impact of each.

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United States (TBD) 

Donald Trump (Republican) vs. Kamala Harris (Democrat) 

In this high-stakes November battle, Trump and Harris face off in an election that will be pivotal for the future of global climate policy. The differing outlooks on climate change of these two candidates could not be more contrasting, and the outcome of this election will define climate policy for years to come.

Should Trump be elected, he has promised to do more of the same regarding policy as we saw from his previous term, where he notably removed the U.S. from the Paris Agreement in 2017. Trump has strongly criticized the Biden administration for the amount of time and effort put toward climate change, and wants to undo the progress that has been made. On the other hand, Harris looks to follow in Biden’s footsteps regarding climate policy, as she has voiced her support for taking action against climate change dating back to her career in California. There is a large negative potential for climate policy should Trump be elected, but positive potential should Harris be elected.

The United States is rated “Insufficient” by the Climate Action Tracker. While their NDC target is rated “Almost Sufficient,” and they aren’t rated as “Critically Insufficient” in any categories, the U.S. still needs major policy packages at the sectoral level and large shifts away from fossil fuel reliance to reach the goals set by the Paris Agreement.

If Trump is elected, he plans on rolling back major restrictions on fossil fuel industries, saving them billions of dollars in return for $1 billion in contributions from the fossil fuel industry to Trump’s campaign. This is in addition to major climate policy achieved by the Biden Administration over the past four years. If Harris is elected, we can expect her to add to the policies of the Biden Administration, as well as expanding the domestic renewable energy industry, showing major positive potential for climate investors.

Mexico (Positive)

Claudia Sheinbaum (left-wing) — National Regeneration Movement (Morena) party 

Mexico’s election took place on June 2, declaring Claudia Sheinbaum of the Morena party the winner over opponent Xóchitl Gálvez. Sheinbaum, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, has a background in environmental policy and is far more environmentally-focused than current president Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Had Obrador been re-elected, we would continue to see little to no environmental policy in Mexico, an area vulnerable to cyclones and floods. 

While Obrador belongs to the same party as Sheinbaum and is considered left-winged, he has cut funding in all environment-related sectors drastically during his time as president. Sheinbaum, on the other hand, served as minister of the environment for Mexico City and helped create the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a major group that monitors and assesses global science related to climate change. Due to these accolades, we can expect Sheinbaum to create major change on the environmental policy side of politics in Mexico. On the Climate Action Tracker, Mexico ranks as a “Critically Insufficient” country in terms of successfully on track to reach the goals set by the Paris Agreement. Ranking “Highly Insufficient” to “Critically Insufficient” in every category, and having not stated a net-zero target year, Mexico’s approach to climate is not one to look up to. While the Paris Agreement’s goal is to keep global temperature increases below 1.5°C this century, we would incur increases of 3°C to 4°C by the end of the century if all countries were to follow Mexico’s approach.

During Sheinbaum’s time in office, we can expect to see policy enforcing major reductions in air pollution and increased land preservation, as these were major focus points during her time as Minister of the Environment for Mexico City. Being the second-largest greenhouse gas emitter in Latin America and the Caribbean, Mexico now has an opportunity to improve their ranking behind Sheinbaum. Some 70% of Mexico’s greenhouse gas emissions come from the energy sector. This is due to the extensive use of fossil fuels, as these produced over ¾ of its energy last year. Sheinbaum has advocated in the past for the transition to clean sources of energy, so changes in this sector to benefit the environment can be expected.

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We’re joining The Independent for a special event for climate investors and advocates later this month at New York Climate Week in Manhattan. We’ll be unveiling a Climate 100 List of the most passionate climate advocates from business, entertainment, academia, fashion, and travel, among other industries, and many of Callaway Climate Insights’ top sources will be on the list. The event, which you can register online here to watch for free, will feature former British Prime Minister Theresa May, interviewed by Independent Editor Geordie Greig. For more info or to register for free, click here.

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Indonesia (Negative) 

Prabowo Subianto (right-winged) — Gerindra Party

The Feb. 14 Indonesian Presidential election resulted in Prabowo Subianto of the Gerindra party being elected. Indonesia plays a crucial role for the future of global climate change as they are the largest producer of coal (the dirtiest fossil fuel) but also have vast nickel reserves, an important component of electric batteries. Subianto is a proponent for investment in the nickel industry, and has been pushing for more nickel processing plants, an important step in transitioning away from gas-powered transportation. While this may benefit the environment, these processing plants use massive amounts of energy, which is making the demand for coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, in Indonesia also increase.

Additionally, Subianto poses a major threat to Indonesia’s vast forests which play an important role in removing large amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide. He also plans on expanding Indonesia’s already large palm oil exporting industry, which means clear cutting these forests in favor of planting palm trees, which demand lots of water and severely degrade the environment.

Indonesia is listed as “Critically Insufficient,” the lowest ranking possible on the Climate Action Tracker in every category. This means they are very far from being on track to reach the commitments set by the Paris Agreement. Indonesia has historically seen its land and forests as a source, rather than something in need of management and preservation. Indonesia has a lot of work to do to raise their ranking, but this will be difficult to do with Subianto in office. 

Looking forward, aside from clear cutting forests in favor of palm plantations, Subianto is expected to expand Indonesia’s domestic battery production sector. Due to Indonesia’s nickel reserves, it has the potential to be a large player in the electric battery industry, which is becoming increasingly profitable. While this may be a beneficial and necessary transition for an electric future, both the creation and the use of these processing plants require enormous amounts of energy in a country that mainly uses coal. Due to this, we can expect increases in greenhouse gas emissions from Indonesia as Subianto comes into power.

Russia (Negative)

Vladimir Putin (right-winged) — United Russia Party

The Russian presidential election on March 15 resulted in the re-election of president Vladimir Putin. With Putin in office, we can expect more of the same environmental policies as we’ve seen in the past 24 years under this dictator. As the second-largest oil producer in the world, there is little hope that Putin will change his policies and will continue to favor investments and exportation of oil and other fossil fuels, and neglect climate policies. 

Several times, Russia has tried to make it appear as if they’re making efforts to combat climate change. They did this in 2021 by adopting a new climate bill, but this bill had no authority to enforce any emission quotas or impose penalties, rendering it useless. Putin has pledged for years to reduce Russian greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and have net zero carbon emissions by 2060, Russian greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise at a steady rate throughout his time in office and continue to do so today.

Russia gets a “Critically insufficient” rank on the Climate Action Tracker, ranking “Highly insufficient” or “Critically insufficient” in every category. Since the Paris Agreement, Russia has only increased their carbon emissions and has shown a lack of any real commitment to reducing any of their environmental impacts. Despite several updates to their long-term climate change plan, Russia has made no real moves nor shown intent to do anything in the near future to reach climate goals. 

Dealing with increasing economic pressure from the West, fighting among the ruling elite, and a population with mixed views about the war, Putin has a lot on his plate in the near future. Unfortunately, climate policy is not one of his topics of concern. Entering yet another six-year term, Putin is not expected to focus much on environmental policy and instead will focus on other current Russian issues.

Venezuela (Negative) 

President Nicolas Maduro (United Socialist Party of Venezuela) vs. Edmundo González Urrutia (Independent)

In the July 28 Venezuelan election, Maduro claimed to be re-elected in a more-than-likely fraudulent election. Aside from disqualifying leading opposition candidates, there is strong evidence including tally sheets and public opinion polls from a variety of sources ranging from academics to news outlets proving the opposition, González Urrutia won by a wide margin. Over the weekend, the Venezuelan government said González Urrutia has left the country, seeking asylum in Spain.

Several countries, including the U.S. recognize González Urrutia as the president of Venezuela. Recently at COP27, Maduro blamed capitalism for the cause of climate change, effectively ignoring the fact that Venezuela has played a major role in global oil production, despite recent declines in production due to sanctions. He clearly takes a passive approach to climate change related policy.

Venezuela is not listed on the Climate Action Tracker. 

With a strong grip on Venezuelan politics, Maduro has the power to do what he wants within the country. It is expected that he will continue to neglect the issues of climate change and therefore prevent climate change policies from being formed in Venezuela.

Algeria (Negative)

Abdelmajid Tebboune (right-winged) vs. Zoubida Assoul (left-winged, Union for Change and Progress Party)

Following a term where president Abdelmajid Tebboune had made many false promises, citizens were skeptical of the legitimacy of the Sept. 7 Algerian presidential election. The Algerian leader, backed by the country’s army, won with a reported 94.7% of the votes, officials said.

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, many European countries have been forced to find cheap sources of natural gas elsewhere. Tebboune and Algeria have provided this. Increased exportation of natural gas is environmentally detrimental to the oil-rich country that is already a major producer of fossil fuels. Tebboune is likely to continue promoting fossil fuels in this oil rich country, and neglect climate change issues. Zoubida Assoul was the only candidate who had officially announced to be running.

Tebboune’s victory is bad news for climate investors, as he will continue to export oil and natural gas to counties who previously purchased fossil fuels from Russia.

Algeria is not listed on the Climate Action Tracker. 

Tebboune has worked to consolidate power over his term, after a controversial and messy win with a low turnout rate in 2019.

United Kingdom (Positive) 

Keir Starmer (Labour Party) vs. Rishi Sunak (Conservative Party)

Opposition Keir Starmer of the Labour Party secured the victory over ruling Rishi Sunak on July 24. This marks the first Labour Party Prime Minister since 2005 and ends a 14-year conservative party tenure.

As opposed to Sunak, who is seen to have slowed the UK efforts on fighting climate change, Starmer has made bold statements throughout his campaigning that will please climate investors, stating how climate change is not just an obligation, but the single biggest opportunity going forward.

According to the Climate Action Tracker, the United Kingdom is insufficient in their climate efforts towards reaching the goals set by the Paris Agreement. Although their 2050 net-zero carbon emission goal is ranked “acceptable,” they are “Highly Insufficient” in their climate finance, meaning they will have to dedicate more money towards climate policy in order to reach their goals. 

Going forward, look for Starmer to make moves as Prime Minister to undo the steps backward taken by Sunak. This is overall a positive outcome for climate investors, and steps in the right direction for the future of UK climate policy.

France (Positive) 

National Rally and New Popular Front 

In the 2024 French legislative election held from June 30 to July 7, the main competitors were the National Rally and the New Popular Front parties. While the National Rally party gained more seats this election (+53) than the New Popular Front party (+49), the New Popular Front still maintains a 180-142 seat lead at the end of this election.

With the New Popular Front party maintaining their seat lead in the National Assembly, France can continue to be one of the most climate-friendly countries in the world. Composed of groups with many different backgrounds, ecologists are a major part of the New Popular Front, showing this party’s commitment to environmental efforts. 

France is not listed on the Climate Action Tracker. 

With progressive left-leaning goals, we can expect the New Popular Front to try to take advantage of their seat lead to push environmentally beneficial policies. Specifically, increased investments in renewable energy sources are likely to be a major goal going forward, as this is a crucial way to help France reach the goals set by the Paris Agreement.

Taiwan (Mixed) 

Lai Ching-te (Democratic Progressive Party) 

On Jan. 13, Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, of the Democratic Progressive Party was elected president. This happened despite Chinese attempts to force voters towards the opposite direction. 

With a member of The Democratic Progressive Party re-elected into office, the potential impact on climate by Taiwan remains positive. While not directly affiliated, the Green Party Taiwan is a close ally to The Democratic Progressive Party, and both groups hold similar, environment-prioritizing policies. 

Taiwan is not listed on the Climate Action Tracker. 

Taiwan excels at producing semiconductor chips, and countries around the world rely on them to make computers. Because of this importance, larger countries such as the U.S. are more willing to protect Taiwan from the threats of China. Lai looks to expand their semiconductor industry to boost Taiwan’s economy, as well as ensure protection against China. Semiconductor plants are known to be extremely degrading to the environment, consuming over 1 million gallons of water daily, and producing thousands of tons of chemical waste annually. Despite policies that aim to aid the environment from Lai’s administration, the expansion of their semiconductor industry leads to a negative outlook for climate investors.

India (Negative) 

National Democratic Alliance (NDA) vs. India National Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) 

In a country boasting the largest population on the planet, the Indian general election from April 19 to June 1 was important for climate investors. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) came out on top, winning 292 seats to INDIA’s 237, but fell short of their expected 400 seat prediction.

The BJP party is the largest party within the NDA, winning a majority 240 seats alone. This party has been known for loosening climate regulations within India, leading to potential steps backwards for Indian climate policy. 

India has been rated on the Climate Action Tracker as “critically insufficient.” With a target goal for net-zero carbon emissions of 2070 rated as “poor,” the tracker states that India’s climate actions and policies need to be extensively improved by 2030 to be within the targets set by the Paris Agreement.

Going forward, we can expect to see few policies including environmental action, as the main party in power has anti-climate viewpoints.

EU (Mixed) 

The EU parliamentary elections took place from June 6 to 9. The European People’s Party (EPP) won the most seats, while liberal and environmentalist parties lost seats. With many left seats being lost, the EU’s center position is now shifted more to the right. 

While environmentalist parties lost seats in this election, the EPP has some policies that promote the environment. Maintaining a healthy environment is listed as one of its many main values, meaning its victory could have a positive effect on climate policy going forward. 

The EU is rated “Insufficient” on the Climate Action Tracker. While this rating is better than many other countries, and its net-zero carbon emission target of 2050 is rated “acceptable,” the EU is still far from reaching the goals of the Paris Agreement. While it has stated ambitious targets for the future, the CAT determined that these targets did not lead to an increase in ambition. 

Looking forward, we can expect to see moderate advances in climate policy from the EU. Major moves are less likely to be made due to fewer environmentalists holding seats after this election.

Finland (Mixed) 

Alexander Stubb (National Coalition) vs. Pekka Haavisto (Independent) 

Stubb narrowly defeated Haavisto in the Jan. 28 - Feb. 11 race that was the closest in Finland’s history. Being a very progressive country, both major opponents were left-winged with progressive views.

Despite being a left-winged candidate, Stubb has failed to fully acknowledge the severity of climate change, and has very little background in the field. His opponent however, Haavisto, is part of the Green Party, a group with climate change as one of their main concerns, meaning we could expect far more to be done on the policy side of things had Haavisto been elected. 

Finland is not listed on the Climate Action Tracker. 

In a recent interview with Stubb, he mentions how “it’ll be interesting to see if it actually happens... ” regarding climate change. Based on this statement and what we know about Stubb, we can expect to see minimal new climate policy in Finland, despite this country’s progressiveness.

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